UALBANY
GREAT DANESUALB
10-17 | Road
62
UMBC
RETRIEVERSUMBC
17-8 | Home
66
AI Model Win Probability
GREAT DANES
0%
RETRIEVERS
100%
GREAT DANES
--
RETRIEVERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
161.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+5.0
UMBC
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UMBC +5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UMBC)
UALB By 1-7 points
27.2%
UALB By 8-14 points
23.0%
UMBC By 1-7 points
18.6%
UMBC By 8-14 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
UAlbany
83
UALBANY
UMBC
78
UMBC
Simulated Score
UAlbany
71
UALBANY
UMBC
78
UMBC
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Great Danes
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Retrievers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Retrievers (+6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +5.0
D
Sim
Retrievers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o144.5
Loss
Proj Total: 161.0
D
Sim
u144.5
Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 21, 2026
UALB @ UMBC
62 - 66
Jan 31, 2026
UMBC @ UALB
68 - 65
Feb 27, 2025
UALB @ UMBC
78 - 74
Jan 23, 2025
UMBC @ UALB
92 - 87
Feb 17, 2024
UALB @ UMBC
75 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+71.6% more
UAlbany: 4.9
vs
UMBC: 1.4
Steals (L5)
+37.0% more
UAlbany: 7.1
vs
UMBC: 4.5
Turnovers (L5)
+30.1% more
UAlbany: 10.3
vs
UMBC: 7.2
Assists (L5)
+19.8% more
UAlbany: 13.4
vs
UMBC: 10.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UALB Score
83.0
62
UMBC Score
78.0
66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.2 / 41.6
40.0 / 41.0
Assists
10.7 / 13.4
12.0 / 8.0
Blocks
1.4 / 4.9
1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
44.3 / 47.5
42.0 / 52.0
Free Throw %
81.1 / 70.8
77.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
39.0 / 34.0
30.0 / 28.0
Steals
4.5 / 7.1
6.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
7.2 / 10.3
7.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UALB
11-21-0
(34.4%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
UMBC
Advantage
24-9-0
(72.7%)
Margin: 8.8
ATS +/-: +6.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UALB
11-18-0
(37.9%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
UMBC
Advantage
19-12-0
(61.3%)
Margin: 8.8
ATS +/-: +6.0
⚖️ Over/Under
UALB
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: +0.3
UMBC
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8%
Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UMBC
UALB
UMBC
UALB
ML
58%
18-13
55%
17-14
55%
17-14
71%
22-9
ATS
68%
21-10
77%
24-7
55%
17-14
72%
23-9
TTL
39%
12-19
61%
19-12
100%
31-0
100%
32-0
Contextual Game News
