UC SAN DIEGO
TRITONSUCSD
18-9 | Road
71
UC IRVINE
ANTEATERSUCI
18-9 | Home
69
AI Model Win Probability
TRITONS
100%
ANTEATERS
0%
TRITONS
--
ANTEATERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
167.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
UC IRVINE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (UC Irvine)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UCI -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCI)
UCSD By 1-7 points
24.3%
UCSD By 8-14 points
13.7%
UCI By 1-7 points
26.2%
UCI By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
UC San Diego
83
UC SAN DIEGO
UC Irvine
84
UC IRVINE
Simulated Score
UC San Diego
68
UC SAN DIEGO
UC Irvine
75
UC IRVINE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Anteaters
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Anteaters
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Anteaters (+4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Anteaters (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o143.5
Loss
Proj Total: 167.0
D
Sim
u143.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 21, 2026
UCSD @ UCI
71 - 69
Jan 24, 2026
UCI @ UCSD
61 - 59
Mar 15, 2025
UCI @ UCSD
61 - 75
Feb 8, 2025
UCSD @ UCI
85 - 67
Jan 11, 2025
UCI @ UCSD
60 - 52
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+62.7% more
UC Irvine: 5.8
vs
UC San Diego: 3.6
Turnovers (L5)
+18.8% more
UC Irvine: 16.5
vs
UC San Diego: 13.9
Steals (L5)
+13.5% more
UC Irvine: 8.5
vs
UC San Diego: 7.5
Assists (L5)
+11.1% more
UC Irvine: 16.0
vs
UC San Diego: 14.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UCSD Score
83.0
71
UCI Score
84.0
69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.1 / 29.5
44.0 / 40.0
Assists
16.0 / 14.4
18.0 / 19.0
Blocks
5.8 / 3.6
5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
49.0 / 44.4
42.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
67.5 / 69.4
71.0 / 82.0
Rebounding
39.8 / 37.8
36.0 / 36.0
Steals
8.5 / 7.5
5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
16.5 / 13.9
8.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCSD
Advantage
23-11-0
(67.7%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: -0.3
UCI
23-12-0
(65.7%)
Margin: 8.6
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCSD
Advantage
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: -0.3
UCI
16-16-1
(50.0%)
Margin: 8.6
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UCSD
12-20-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5%
Total +/-: -6.0
UCI
12-21-0
O: 36.4% / U: 63.6%
Total +/-: -2.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCI
UCSD
UCI
UCSD
ML
57%
20-15
56%
19-15
53%
18-16
65%
22-12
ATS
63%
22-13
50%
17-17
53%
18-16
65%
22-12
TTL
57%
20-15
62%
21-13
100%
34-0
100%
34-0
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