Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Rebels @ Falcons UNLV @ AF

UNLV

REBELSUNLV

13-13  |  Road

91
FINAL
Sat, Feb 21 • 3:00 PM ET
Clune Arena
View Odds Details →

AIR FORCE

FALCONSAF

3-23  |  Home

66
AI Model Win Probability
REBELS
0%
📊
FALCONS
100%
REBELS --
FALCONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
159.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-31.0
UNLV
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +31.0 points (UNLV)
RebelsUNLV (-3.5) 0 FalconsAF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rebels Cover

99.9%

Falcons Cover

0.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UNLV -31.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNLV)

UNLV By 1-7 points

0.8%

UNLV By 8-14 points

4.0%

AF By 1-7 points

0.1%

AF By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
95
UNLV
64
AIR FORCE
Simulated Score
68
UNLV
75
AIR FORCE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rebels Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Falcons Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rebels (+16.5) Win
Proj Spread: -31.0
D
Sim Falcons (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o152.5 Win
Proj Total: 159.0
D
Sim u152.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 21, 2026 UNLV @ AF 91 - 66
Jan 3, 2026 AF @ UNLV 39 - 67
Mar 12, 2025 AF @ UNLV 59 - 68
Feb 11, 2025 AF @ UNLV 52 - 77
Dec 31, 2024 UNLV @ AF 77 - 58
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +77.8% more
UNLV: 4.6 vs Air Force: 1.0
Rebounding (L5) +22.3% more
UNLV: 33.0 vs Air Force: 25.6
Free Throw % (L5) +8.9%
UNLV: 76.2% vs Air Force: 67.3%
Steals (L5) +8.3% more
UNLV: 6.0 vs Air Force: 5.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNLV Score 95.0 91
AF Score 64.0 66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.6 / 39.0 36.0 / 50.0
Assists 13.9 / 13.0 14.0 / 21.0
Blocks 1.0 / 4.6 1.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 41.3 / 49.1 40.0 / 60.0
Free Throw % 67.3 / 76.2 80.0 / 77.0
Rebounding 25.6 / 33.0 35.0 / 29.0
Steals 5.5 / 6.0 2.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 15.3 / 9.8 15.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
98%TICKETS2%
94%MONEY6%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
89%TICKETS11%
89%MONEY11%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
12%MONEY88%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNLV Advantage
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -0.5
AF
3-29-0 (9.4%)
Margin: -18.3 ATS +/-: -4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNLV Advantage
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -0.5
AF
10-21-1 (32.3%)
Margin: -18.3 ATS +/-: -4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
UNLV
20-14-0
O: 58.8% / U: 41.2% Total +/-: +3.3
AF
19-13-0
O: 59.4% / U: 40.6% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AF
UNLV
AF
UNLV
ML
81% 26-6
50% 17-17
62% 20-12
59% 20-14
ATS
69% 22-10
65% 22-12
62% 20-12
59% 20-14
TTL
69% 22-10
62% 21-13
100% 32-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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