UC DAVIS
AGGIESUCD
16-11 | Road
78
UC RIVERSIDE
HIGHLANDERSUCR
9-19 | Home
73
AI Model Win Probability
AGGIES
0%
HIGHLANDERS
100%
AGGIES
--
HIGHLANDERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+5.0
UC RIVERSIDE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UCR +5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCR)
UCD By 1-7 points
27.2%
UCD By 8-14 points
23.0%
UCR By 1-7 points
18.6%
UCR By 8-14 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
UC Davis
78
UC DAVIS
UC Riverside
73
UC RIVERSIDE
Simulated Score
UC Davis
68
UC DAVIS
UC Riverside
72
UC RIVERSIDE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Aggies
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Highlanders
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Highlanders (+5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +5.0
D
Sim
Highlanders (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o149.5
Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim
u149.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 21, 2026
UCD @ UCR
78 - 73
Jan 24, 2026
UCR @ UCD
66 - 74
Feb 13, 2025
UCR @ UCD
74 - 75
Jan 30, 2025
UCD @ UCR
58 - 60
Feb 17, 2024
UCR @ UCD
67 - 61
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+23.3% more
UC Davis: 8.8
vs
UC Riverside: 6.8
Assists (L5)
+16.5% more
UC Davis: 17.3
vs
UC Riverside: 14.5
Blocks (L5)
+66.2% more
UC Riverside: 5.2
vs
UC Davis: 3.1
Rebounding (L5)
+25.1% more
UC Riverside: 38.1
vs
UC Davis: 30.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UCD Score
78.0
78
UCR Score
73.0
73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.6 / 36.7
29.0 / 21.0
Assists
14.5 / 17.3
11.0 / 13.0
Blocks
5.2 / 3.1
4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
44.4 / 45.0
38.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
79.6 / 71.1
75.0 / 77.0
Rebounding
38.1 / 30.5
41.0 / 31.0
Steals
6.8 / 8.8
7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
12.8 / 11.0
16.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCD
Advantage
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +0.8
UCR
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -4.9
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCD
Advantage
17-14-1
(54.8%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +0.8
UCR
14-14-2
(50.0%)
Margin: -4.9
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
UCD
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8%
Total +/-: +1.6
UCR
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCR
UCD
UCR
UCD
ML
66%
21-11
58%
19-14
75%
24-8
64%
21-12
ATS
59%
19-13
61%
20-13
75%
24-8
64%
21-12
TTL
66%
21-11
61%
20-13
100%
32-0
100%
33-0
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