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SAN DIEGO STATE

AZTECSSDSU

18-7  |  Road

74
FINAL
Sat, Feb 21 • 6:00 PM ET
Moby Arena
View Odds Details →

COLORADO STATE

RAMSCSU

16-10  |  Home

83
AI Model Win Probability
AZTECS
100%
📊
RAMS
0%
AZTECS --
RAMS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
COLORADO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Colorado State)
AztecsSDSU (-3.5) 0 RamsCSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Aztecs Cover

46.0%

Rams Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CSU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CSU)

SDSU By 1-7 points

24.3%

SDSU By 8-14 points

13.7%

CSU By 1-7 points

26.2%

CSU By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
74
SAN DIEGO STATE
75
COLORADO STATE
Simulated Score
65
SAN DIEGO STATE
68
COLORADO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rams Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rams Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rams (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Rams (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o138.5 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim u138.5 Win
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 12, 2026 CSU @ SDSU 62 - 71
Feb 21, 2026 SDSU @ CSU 74 - 83
Jan 28, 2026 CSU @ SDSU 50 - 73
Feb 8, 2025 SDSU @ CSU 63 - 68
Jan 14, 2025 CSU @ SDSU 60 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +26.1% more
Colorado State: 16.8 vs San Diego State: 13.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +10.3%
Colorado State: 38.2% vs San Diego State: 27.9%
Field Goal % (L5) +9.9%
Colorado State: 53.8% vs San Diego State: 43.9%
Blocks (L5) +40.7% more
San Diego State: 5.9 vs Colorado State: 3.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SDSU Score 74.0 74
CSU Score 75.0 83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.2 / 27.9 42.0 / 36.0
Assists 16.8 / 13.3 16.0 / 11.0
Blocks 3.5 / 5.9 1.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 53.8 / 43.9 47.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 76.7 / 82.9 83.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 30.8 / 32.8 33.0 / 35.0
Steals 4.9 / 8.1 5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 9.5 / 10.9 13.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
71%MONEY29%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
87%MONEY13%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SDSU Advantage
22-11-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -0.7
CSU
21-13-0 (61.8%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SDSU
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -0.7
CSU Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
SDSU
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: +5.5
CSU
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CSU
SDSU
CSU
SDSU
ML
56% 19-15
62% 20-12
65% 20-11
72% 23-9
ATS
62% 21-13
69% 22-10
65% 20-11
72% 23-9
TTL
56% 19-15
75% 24-8
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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