SAMFORD
BULLDOGSSAM
16-12 | Road
86
MERCER
BEARSMER
17-11 | Home
89
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
BEARS
0%
BULLDOGS
--
BEARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
121.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
MERCER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Mercer)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MER -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MER)
SAM By 1-7 points
9.3%
SAM By 8-14 points
2.7%
MER By 1-7 points
21.6%
MER By 8-14 points
27.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Samford
55
SAMFORD
Mercer
66
MERCER
Simulated Score
Samford
79
SAMFORD
Mercer
74
MERCER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bears
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bulldogs
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Bears (-1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim
Bulldogs (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u148.5
Loss
Proj Total: 121.0
D
Sim
u148.5
Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 21, 2026
SAM @ MER
86 - 89
Feb 7, 2026
MER @ SAM
49 - 69
Feb 5, 2025
MER @ SAM
79 - 100
Jan 15, 2025
SAM @ MER
75 - 74
Mar 9, 2024
MER @ SAM
57 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+37.6% more
Mercer: 3.0
vs
Samford: 2.2
Steals (L5)
+22.2% more
Mercer: 5.2
vs
Samford: 4.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.6%
Mercer: 41.3%
vs
Samford: 37.6%
Assists (L5)
+27.4% more
Samford: 14.8
vs
Mercer: 10.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SAM Score
55.0
86
MER Score
66.0
89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
41.3 / 37.6
41.0 / 38.0
Assists
10.8 / 14.8
16.0 / 12.0
Blocks
3.0 / 2.2
5.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
46.3 / 49.8
64.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
68.5 / 68.3
72.0 / 87.0
Rebounding
33.3 / 39.3
32.0 / 28.0
Steals
5.2 / 4.2
4.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
8.6 / 11.2
13.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAM
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 3.6
ATS +/-: +0.3
MER
Advantage
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAM
17-12-1
(58.6%)
Margin: 3.6
ATS +/-: +0.3
MER
Advantage
19-10-0
(65.5%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
SAM
18-11-1
O: 62.1% / U: 37.9%
Total +/-: +2.6
MER
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MER
SAM
MER
SAM
ML
55%
17-14
65%
20-11
71%
22-9
68%
21-10
ATS
58%
18-13
68%
21-10
71%
22-9
68%
21-10
TTL
61%
19-12
35%
11-20
100%
31-0
100%
31-0
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