Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Vaqueros @ Lions RGV @ SELA

UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY

VAQUEROSRGV

15-12  |  Road

96
FINAL
Sat, Feb 21 • 4:30 PM ET
University Center
View Odds Details →

SE LOUISIANA

LIONSSELA

8-19  |  Home

75
AI Model Win Probability
VAQUEROS
0%
📊
LIONS
100%
VAQUEROS --
LIONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
135.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (UT Rio Grande Valley)
VaquerosRGV (-3.5) 0 LionsSELA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Vaqueros Cover

69.1%

Lions Cover

30.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around RGV -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (RGV)

RGV By 1-7 points

27.2%

RGV By 8-14 points

23.0%

SELA By 1-7 points

18.6%

SELA By 8-14 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
70
UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY
65
SE LOUISIANA
Simulated Score
69
UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY
73
SE LOUISIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Vaqueros Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lions Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Vaqueros (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Lions (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u138.5 Loss
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Sim u138.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 21, 2026 RGV @ SELA 96 - 75
Jan 19, 2026 SELA @ RGV 65 - 68
Mar 3, 2025 SELA @ RGV 76 - 77
Jan 6, 2025 RGV @ SELA 75 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +45.9% more
UT Rio Grande Valley: 3.3 vs SE Louisiana: 1.8
Assists (L5) +33.5% more
UT Rio Grande Valley: 16.0 vs SE Louisiana: 10.6
Free Throw % (L5) +17.3%
UT Rio Grande Valley: 78.8% vs SE Louisiana: 61.5%
Rebounding (L5) +10.0% more
UT Rio Grande Valley: 36.7 vs SE Louisiana: 33.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
RGV Score 70.0 96
SELA Score 65.0 75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.1 / 32.9 24.0 / 57.0
Assists 10.6 / 16.0 12.0 / 22.0
Blocks 1.8 / 3.3 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 40.6 / 44.5 45.0 / 62.0
Free Throw % 61.5 / 78.8 66.0 / 95.0
Rebounding 33.0 / 36.7 28.0 / 24.0
Steals 6.3 / 4.4 5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 12.0 / 9.6 6.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
91%TICKETS9%
98%MONEY2%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
63%MONEY37%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
RGV Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 6.4 ATS +/-: +4.1
SELA
9-22-0 (29.0%)
Margin: -5.4 ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
RGV Advantage
18-13-0 (58.1%)
Margin: 6.4 ATS +/-: +4.1
SELA
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -5.4 ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
RGV
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -1.5
SELA
13-17-0
O: 43.3% / U: 56.7% Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SELA
RGV
SELA
RGV
ML
70% 21-9
53% 16-14
66% 19-10
54% 15-13
ATS
60% 18-12
53% 16-14
67% 20-10
54% 15-13
TTL
70% 21-9
60% 18-12
100% 30-0
100% 28-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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