Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Quakers @ Bulldogs PENN @ YALE

PENNSYLVANIA

QUAKERSPENN

13-10  |  Road

70
FINAL
Sat, Feb 21 • 2:00 PM ET
John J. Lee Amphitheater
View Odds Details →

YALE

BULLDOGSYALE

20-4  |  Home

74
AI Model Win Probability
QUAKERS
0%
📊
BULLDOGS
100%
QUAKERS --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
YALE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
QuakersPENN (-3.5) 0 BulldogsYALE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Quakers Cover

38.2%

Bulldogs Cover

61.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around YALE +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (YALE)

PENN By 1-7 points

27.2%

PENN By 8-14 points

20.1%

YALE By 1-7 points

21.6%

YALE By 8-14 points

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
76
PENNSYLVANIA
73
YALE
Simulated Score
72
PENNSYLVANIA
75
YALE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Quakers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 15, 2026 PENN @ YALE 88 - 84
Feb 21, 2026 PENN @ YALE 70 - 74
Jan 24, 2026 YALE @ PENN 77 - 60
Feb 14, 2025 PENN @ YALE 71 - 72
Feb 1, 2025 YALE @ PENN 90 - 61
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +49.0% more
Pennsylvania: 3.6 vs Yale: 1.8
Steals (L5) +28.0% more
Pennsylvania: 8.0 vs Yale: 5.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +13.3%
Yale: 43.2% vs Pennsylvania: 29.9%
Assists (L5) +11.8% more
Yale: 14.6 vs Pennsylvania: 13.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PENN Score 76.0 70
YALE Score 73.0 74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 43.2 / 29.9 23.0 / 53.0
Assists 14.6 / 13.1 13.0 / 14.0
Blocks 1.8 / 3.6 6.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 47.8 / 43.9 44.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 76.3 / 67.7 78.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 34.4 / 35.4 38.0 / 35.0
Steals 5.8 / 8.0 4.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 9.4 / 9.5 10.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
1%TICKETS99%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
22%TICKETS78%
26%MONEY74%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PENN
--
YALE Advantage
24-7-0 (77.4%)
Margin: 10.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PENN
--
YALE Advantage
12-16-1 (42.9%)
Margin: 10.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
PENN
--
YALE
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3% Total +/-: +1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
YALE
PENN
YALE
PENN
ML
48% 15-16
53% 16-14
58% 18-13
76% 22-7
ATS
65% 20-11
63% 19-11
58% 18-13
76% 22-7
TTL
61% 19-12
70% 21-9
100% 31-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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