DUQUESNE
DUKESDUQ
16-10 | Road
66
DAYTON
FLYERSDAY
17-9 | Home
78
AI Model Win Probability
DUKES
100%
FLYERS
0%
DUKES
--
FLYERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
DAYTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Dayton)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DAY -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAY)
DUQ By 1-7 points
24.3%
DUQ By 8-14 points
13.7%
DAY By 1-7 points
26.2%
DAY By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Duquesne
74
DUQUESNE
Dayton
75
DAYTON
Simulated Score
Duquesne
68
DUQUESNE
Dayton
72
DAYTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Flyers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Flyers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Flyers (+7.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Flyers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o148.5
Loss
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim
u148.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 21, 2026
DUQ @ DAY
66 - 78
Jan 13, 2026
DAY @ DUQ
71 - 65
Feb 15, 2025
DUQ @ DAY
76 - 77
Jan 21, 2025
DAY @ DUQ
82 - 62
Mar 14, 2024
DUQ @ DAY
65 - 57
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+36.9% more
Dayton: 15.5
vs
Duquesne: 11.3
Blocks (L5)
+26.9% more
Dayton: 3.6
vs
Duquesne: 2.9
Turnovers (L5)
+12.4% more
Dayton: 12.7
vs
Duquesne: 11.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+11.1%
Dayton: 40.2%
vs
Duquesne: 29.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DUQ Score
74.0
66
DAY Score
75.0
78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.2 / 29.1
38.0 / 42.0
Assists
15.5 / 11.3
14.0 / 12.0
Blocks
3.6 / 2.9
6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
47.4 / 45.8
44.0 / 38.0
Free Throw %
72.9 / 71.6
75.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
33.9 / 31.2
34.0 / 33.0
Steals
7.0 / 8.9
5.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
12.7 / 11.3
8.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DUQ
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 3.1
ATS +/-: -0.3
DAY
Advantage
25-12-0
(67.6%)
Margin: 4.8
ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DUQ
14-16-1
(46.7%)
Margin: 3.1
ATS +/-: -0.3
DAY
Advantage
18-19-0
(48.7%)
Margin: 4.8
ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
DUQ
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +1.6
DAY
13-24-0
O: 35.1% / U: 64.9%
Total +/-: -2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAY
DUQ
DAY
DUQ
ML
65%
24-13
53%
17-15
64%
23-13
58%
18-13
ATS
68%
25-12
69%
22-10
64%
23-13
58%
18-13
TTL
57%
21-16
50%
16-16
100%
36-0
100%
31-0
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