TEXAS
LONGHORNSTEX
17-9 | Road
80
GEORGIA
BULLDOGSUGA
18-8 | Home
91
AI Model Win Probability
LONGHORNS
100%
BULLDOGS
0%
LONGHORNS
--
BULLDOGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
164.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
GEORGIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Georgia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UGA -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UGA)
TEX By 1-7 points
23.0%
TEX By 8-14 points
12.2%
UGA By 1-7 points
26.8%
UGA By 8-14 points
18.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas
81
TEXAS
Georgia
83
GEORGIA
Simulated Score
Texas
78
TEXAS
Georgia
72
GEORGIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bulldogs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Longhorns
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Bulldogs (+2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim
Longhorns (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o163.5
Win
Proj Total: 164.0
D
Sim
u163.5
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 21, 2026
TEX @ UGA
80 - 91
Jan 24, 2026
UGA @ TEX
67 - 87
Mar 1, 2025
UGA @ TEX
83 - 67
Jan 26, 2019
TEX @ UGA
88 - 98
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+55.4% more
Georgia: 7.6
vs
Texas: 4.9
Blocks (L5)
+46.1% more
Georgia: 3.6
vs
Texas: 2.5
Assists (L5)
+46.0% more
Georgia: 15.0
vs
Texas: 10.3
Field Goal % (L5)
+7.4%
Texas: 52.1%
vs
Georgia: 44.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TEX Score
81.0
80
UGA Score
83.0
91
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.4 / 41.2
55.0 / 50.0
Assists
15.0 / 10.3
17.0 / 12.0
Blocks
3.6 / 2.5
6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
44.7 / 52.1
60.0 / 57.0
Free Throw %
71.7 / 79.0
86.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
33.8 / 34.9
24.0 / 22.0
Steals
7.6 / 4.9
5.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
9.4 / 9.1
5.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
21-15-0
(58.3%)
Margin: 6.6
ATS +/-: +0.6
UGA
Advantage
22-11-0
(66.7%)
Margin: 9.6
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
Advantage
20-15-0
(57.1%)
Margin: 6.6
ATS +/-: +0.6
UGA
15-17-1
(46.9%)
Margin: 9.6
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
20-15-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9%
Total +/-: +2.6
UGA
18-15-0
O: 54.6% / U: 45.5%
Total +/-: +4.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UGA
TEX
UGA
TEX
ML
67%
22-11
58%
21-15
56%
18-14
56%
19-15
ATS
61%
20-13
56%
20-16
56%
18-14
56%
19-15
TTL
64%
21-12
64%
23-13
100%
32-0
100%
34-0
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