Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Fighting Irish @ Panthers ND @ PITT

NOTRE DAME

FIGHTING IRISHND

12-14  |  Road

68
FINAL
Sat, Feb 21 • 2:00 PM ET
Petersen Events Center
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

PANTHERSPITT

9-17  |  Home

73
AI Model Win Probability
FIGHTING IRISH
0%
📊
PANTHERS
100%
FIGHTING IRISH --
PANTHERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
127.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
NOTRE DAME
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (Notre Dame)
Fighting IrishND (-3.5) 0 PanthersPITT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Fighting Irish Cover

97.1%

Panthers Cover

2.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ND -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ND)

ND By 1-7 points

9.3%

ND By 8-14 points

20.1%

PITT By 1-7 points

2.2%

PITT By 8-14 points

0.4%

AI Model Projected Score
73
NOTRE DAME
54
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
69
NOTRE DAME
72
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Fighting Irish Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Panthers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Fighting Irish (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Sim Panthers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u138.5 Loss
Proj Total: 127.0
D
Sim u138.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 21, 2026 ND @ PITT 68 - 73
Mar 11, 2025 PITT @ ND 54 - 55
Feb 22, 2025 PITT @ ND 72 - 76
Feb 3, 2024 ND @ PITT 60 - 70
Mar 1, 2023 PITT @ ND 81 - 88
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +10.7%
Notre Dame: 41.3% vs Pittsburgh: 30.7%
Rebounding (L5) +9.6% more
Notre Dame: 34.8 vs Pittsburgh: 31.5
Free Throw % (L5) +6.7%
Notre Dame: 69.8% vs Pittsburgh: 63.0%
Field Goal % (L5) +6.1%
Notre Dame: 47.1% vs Pittsburgh: 41.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ND Score 73.0 68
PITT Score 54.0 73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.7 / 41.3 46.0 / 24.0
Assists 14.1 / 13.8 16.0 / 14.0
Blocks 2.6 / 2.8 0.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 41.1 / 47.1 45.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 63.0 / 69.8 67.0 / 50.0
Rebounding 31.5 / 34.8 36.0 / 38.0
Steals 5.6 / 5.6 5.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 12.3 / 11.9 10.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
44%MONEY56%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
27%MONEY73%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ND Advantage
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.9
PITT
13-20-0 (39.4%)
Margin: -1.3 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ND
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.9
PITT Advantage
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: -1.3 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
ND
22-9-0
O: 71.0% / U: 29.0% Total +/-: +5.0
PITT
17-15-1
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: -0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PITT
ND
PITT
ND
ML
58% 19-14
65% 20-11
45% 15-18
77% 24-7
ATS
64% 21-12
55% 17-14
45% 15-18
77% 24-7
TTL
61% 20-13
68% 21-10
100% 33-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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