Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Musketeers @ Bulldogs XAV @ BUT

XAVIER

MUSKETEERSXAV

13-13  |  Road

75
FINAL
Sat, Feb 21 • 1:30 PM ET
Hinkle Fieldhouse
View Odds Details →

BUTLER

BULLDOGSBUT

14-13  |  Home

80
AI Model Win Probability
MUSKETEERS
0%
📊
BULLDOGS
100%
MUSKETEERS --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
XAVIER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Xavier)
MusketeersXAV (-3.5) 0 BulldogsBUT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Musketeers Cover

86.4%

Bulldogs Cover

13.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around XAV -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (XAV)

XAV By 1-7 points

21.6%

XAV By 8-14 points

27.4%

BUT By 1-7 points

9.3%

BUT By 8-14 points

2.7%

AI Model Projected Score
82
XAVIER
71
BUTLER
Simulated Score
70
XAVIER
78
BUTLER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Musketeers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Musketeers (-3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u159.5 Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Sim u159.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 21, 2026 XAV @ BUT 75 - 80
Jan 14, 2026 BUT @ XAV 75 - 89
Mar 5, 2025 XAV @ BUT 91 - 78
Feb 18, 2025 BUT @ XAV 63 - 76
Mar 13, 2024 XAV @ BUT 76 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +35.1% more
Xavier: 4.2 vs Butler: 2.7
Turnovers (L5) +29.1% more
Xavier: 12.1 vs Butler: 8.6
Assists (L5) +16.5% more
Xavier: 19.5 vs Butler: 16.3
Rebounding (L5) +13.2% more
Xavier: 37.4 vs Butler: 32.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
XAV Score 82.0 75
BUT Score 71.0 80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.3 / 39.7 27.0 / 31.0
Assists 16.3 / 19.5 14.0 / 13.0
Blocks 2.7 / 4.2 2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 44.0 / 46.9 47.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 71.4 / 77.7 76.0 / 82.0
Rebounding 32.5 / 37.4 35.0 / 32.0
Steals 5.7 / 5.3 2.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 8.6 / 12.1 6.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
38%MONEY62%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
XAV
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -1.2
BUT Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
XAV
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -1.2
BUT Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
XAV
25-8-0
O: 75.8% / U: 24.2% Total +/-: +6.0
BUT
17-14-1
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2% Total +/-: +2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUT
XAV
BUT
XAV
ML
62% 20-12
58% 19-14
65% 20-11
72% 23-9
ATS
56% 18-14
73% 24-9
65% 20-11
72% 23-9
TTL
50% 16-16
39% 13-20
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
CareSource Invitational Turns Tennis Center into Basketball Show…
wcpo 19 hours, 33 minutes ago
Aden Holloway Reinstated to Alabama Basketball Roster, Suspended…
saturdaydownsouth 2 days, 6 hours ago
Duke Dominates ACC Preseason Poll, But Wide-Open Race Looms Behi…
yahoo 3 days, 7 hours ago
Kansas Jayhawks Set Program Record with 706 Yards, Blank Middle …
si 5 days, 1 hour ago
UCLA's Unlikely Heroes: TaShawn James, Jalen Woods, and Semaj Mo…
si 5 days, 12 hours ago