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MISSISSIPPI STATE

BULLDOGSMSST

13-13  |  Road

89
FINAL
Sat, Feb 21 • 1:00 PM ET
Colonial Life Arena
View Odds Details →

SOUTH CAROLINA

GAMECOCKSSC

11-15  |  Home

97
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
📊
GAMECOCKS
0%
BULLDOGS --
GAMECOCKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
158.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
SOUTH CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (South Carolina)
BulldogsMSST (-3.5) 0 GamecocksSC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

5.5%

Gamecocks Cover

94.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SC -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SC)

MSST By 1-7 points

4.0%

MSST By 8-14 points

0.8%

SC By 1-7 points

13.7%

SC By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
71
MISSISSIPPI STATE
87
SOUTH CAROLINA
Simulated Score
68
MISSISSIPPI STATE
72
SOUTH CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Gamecocks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Gamecocks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Gamecocks (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim Gamecocks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o151.5 Win
Proj Total: 158.0
D
Sim u151.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 21, 2026 MSST @ SC 89 - 97
Jan 25, 2025 MSST @ SC 65 - 60
Jan 4, 2025 SC @ MSST 50 - 85
Mar 9, 2024 SC @ MSST 93 - 89
Jan 6, 2024 MSST @ SC 62 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +26.9% more
South Carolina: 6.3 vs Mississippi State: 5.0
Free Throw % (L5) +12.7%
South Carolina: 78.8% vs Mississippi State: 66.1%
Blocks (L5) +69.8% more
Mississippi State: 6.0 vs South Carolina: 1.8
Assists (L5) +29.4% more
Mississippi State: 14.9 vs South Carolina: 10.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MSST Score 71.0 89
SC Score 87.0 97
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 22.7 / 41.3 50.0 / 30.0
Assists 10.5 / 14.9 20.0 / 15.0
Blocks 1.8 / 6.0 2.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 39.0 / 48.7 55.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 78.8 / 66.1 85.0 / 57.0
Rebounding 29.3 / 35.4 32.0 / 37.0
Steals 6.3 / 5.0 4.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 9.5 / 9.4 6.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
57%MONEY43%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MSST
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -4.4
SC
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MSST
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -4.4
SC Advantage
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MSST
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.1
SC
14-16-2
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: +1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SC
MSST
SC
MSST
ML
72% 23-9
66% 21-11
68% 21-10
55% 17-14
ATS
69% 22-10
56% 18-14
68% 21-10
55% 17-14
TTL
50% 16-16
59% 19-13
100% 31-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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