ARKANSAS STATE
RED WOLVESARST
17-11 | Road
102
UL MONROE
WARHAWKSULM
4-24 | Home
94
AI Model Win Probability
RED WOLVES
0%
WARHAWKS
100%
RED WOLVES
--
WARHAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
143.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
UL MONROE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ULM +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ULM)
ARST By 1-7 points
27.2%
ARST By 8-14 points
20.1%
ULM By 1-7 points
21.6%
ULM By 8-14 points
10.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Arkansas State
73
ARKANSAS STATE
UL Monroe
70
UL MONROE
Simulated Score
Arkansas State
69
ARKANSAS STATE
UL Monroe
74
UL MONROE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Red Wolves
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Warhawks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Warhawks (+15.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Sim
Warhawks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u164.5
Loss
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Sim
u164.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 21, 2026
ARST @ ULM
102 - 94
Feb 11, 2026
ULM @ ARST
70 - 103
Feb 28, 2025
ARST @ ULM
94 - 67
Feb 22, 2025
ULM @ ARST
70 - 95
Feb 3, 2024
ULM @ ARST
80 - 95
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+42.1% more
Arkansas State: 15.7
vs
UL Monroe: 9.1
Rebounding (L5)
+35.6% more
Arkansas State: 48.0
vs
UL Monroe: 30.9
Assists (L5)
+30.0% more
Arkansas State: 15.1
vs
UL Monroe: 10.5
Field Goal % (L5)
+6.3%
Arkansas State: 49.4%
vs
UL Monroe: 43.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARST Score
73.0
102
ULM Score
70.0
94
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.5 / 32.4
41.0 / 42.0
Assists
10.5 / 15.1
23.0 / 18.0
Blocks
3.1 / 2.6
3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
43.1 / 49.4
52.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
70.9 / 65.6
72.0 / 84.0
Rebounding
30.9 / 48.0
35.0 / 32.0
Steals
6.3 / 5.9
6.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
9.1 / 15.7
15.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARST
Advantage
20-12-0
(62.5%)
Margin: 5.8
ATS +/-: -0.5
ULM
4-28-0
(12.5%)
Margin: -11.5
ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARST
15-15-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 5.8
ATS +/-: -0.5
ULM
Advantage
18-12-0
(60.0%)
Margin: -11.5
ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
ARST
15-14-1
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3%
Total +/-: +2.5
ULM
20-9-1
O: 69.0% / U: 31.0%
Total +/-: +5.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ULM
ARST
ULM
ARST
ML
50%
16-16
48%
15-16
70%
21-9
53%
16-14
ATS
78%
25-7
58%
18-13
70%
21-9
53%
16-14
TTL
59%
19-13
61%
19-12
100%
30-0
100%
30-0
