UCONN
HUSKIESCONN
24-3 | Road
73
VILLANOVA
WILDCATSVILL
21-5 | Home
63
AI Model Win Probability
HUSKIES
100%
WILDCATS
0%
HUSKIES
--
WILDCATS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
152.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
VILLANOVA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Villanova)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around VILL -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VILL)
CONN By 1-7 points
23.0%
CONN By 8-14 points
12.2%
VILL By 1-7 points
26.8%
VILL By 8-14 points
18.6%
AI Model Projected Score
UConn
75
UCONN
Villanova
77
VILLANOVA
Simulated Score
UConn
70
UCONN
Villanova
75
VILLANOVA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Wildcats
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Wildcats
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Wildcats (+3.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim
Wildcats (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o141.5
Loss
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Sim
u141.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 21, 2026
CONN @ VILL
73 - 63
Jan 24, 2026
VILL @ CONN
67 - 75
Mar 13, 2025
VILL @ CONN
56 - 73
Feb 18, 2025
VILL @ CONN
59 - 66
Jan 8, 2025
CONN @ VILL
66 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+68.3% more
Villanova: 9.7
vs
UConn: 5.8
Blocks (L5)
+48.1% more
UConn: 4.6
vs
Villanova: 2.4
Assists (L5)
+8.7% more
UConn: 20.1
vs
Villanova: 18.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.9%
UConn: 38.2%
vs
Villanova: 34.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CONN Score
75.0
73
VILL Score
77.0
63
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.3 / 38.2
25.0 / 32.0
Assists
18.4 / 20.1
12.0 / 19.0
Blocks
2.4 / 4.6
4.0 / 8.0
Field Goal %
44.4 / 48.1
41.0 / 55.0
Free Throw %
65.9 / 65.2
64.0 / 85.0
Rebounding
36.7 / 34.3
24.0 / 37.0
Steals
9.7 / 5.8
8.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
8.4 / 8.7
10.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CONN
Advantage
34-6-0
(85.0%)
Margin: 11.4
ATS +/-: -1.1
VILL
24-9-0
(72.7%)
Margin: 5.9
ATS +/-: +1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CONN
18-22-0
(45.0%)
Margin: 11.4
ATS +/-: -1.1
VILL
Advantage
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 5.9
ATS +/-: +1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
CONN
19-21-0
O: 47.5% / U: 52.5%
Total +/-: -1.5
VILL
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4%
Total +/-: +1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VILL
CONN
VILL
CONN
ML
44%
14-18
76%
29-9
72%
23-9
66%
23-12
ATS
56%
18-14
74%
28-10
72%
23-9
66%
23-12
TTL
41%
13-19
50%
19-19
100%
32-0
100%
35-0
Contextual Game News
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Gerry McNamara Vows to Bring Syracuse Basketball Back to Nationa…
Houston Cougars Set for Road Test Against Kansas State in Big 12…
UConn Men's Basketball 2026-27 TV Schedule Revealed: Up to Seven…
Tom Moore Retires from UConn GM Role, Eyes Broadcasting Career