UTAH TECH
TRAILBLAZERSUTU
16-12 | Road
80
TARLETON STATE
TEXANSTAR
14-13 | Home
72
AI Model Win Probability
TRAILBLAZERS
100%
TEXANS
0%
TRAILBLAZERS
--
TEXANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
124.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
TARLETON STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Tarleton State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TAR -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TAR)
UTU By 1-7 points
23.0%
UTU By 8-14 points
12.2%
TAR By 1-7 points
26.8%
TAR By 8-14 points
18.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Utah Tech
61
UTAH TECH
Tarleton State
63
TARLETON STATE
Simulated Score
Utah Tech
68
UTAH TECH
Tarleton State
72
TARLETON STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Texans
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Texans
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Texans (+2)
Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim
Texans (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u141.0
Loss
Proj Total: 124.0
D
Sim
u141.0
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 21, 2026
UTU @ TAR
80 - 72
Jan 31, 2026
UTU @ TAR
65 - 59
Jan 17, 2026
TAR @ UTU
71 - 75
Jan 30, 2025
UTU @ TAR
54 - 61
Jan 11, 2025
TAR @ UTU
54 - 58
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+105.1% more
Tarleton State: 5.3
vs
Utah Tech: 2.6
Steals (L5)
+90.8% more
Tarleton State: 11.0
vs
Utah Tech: 5.8
Turnovers (L5)
+43.7% more
Tarleton State: 15.1
vs
Utah Tech: 10.5
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.8%
Tarleton State: 47.0%
vs
Utah Tech: 43.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UTU Score
61.0
80
TAR Score
63.0
72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
22.9 / 37.0
32.0 / 38.0
Assists
7.5 / 12.8
12.0 / 16.0
Blocks
5.3 / 2.6
0.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
47.0 / 43.3
43.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
68.6 / 70.8
87.0 / 85.0
Rebounding
30.3 / 33.4
29.0 / 37.0
Steals
11.0 / 5.8
5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
15.1 / 10.5
7.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTU
Advantage
19-15-0
(55.9%)
Margin: 1.9
ATS +/-: +1.8
TAR
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: 0.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTU
Advantage
19-12-0
(61.3%)
Margin: 1.9
ATS +/-: +1.8
TAR
14-14-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: 0.0
⚖️ Over/Under
UTU
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +4.1
TAR
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4%
Total +/-: +4.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TAR
UTU
TAR
UTU
ML
59%
19-13
68%
23-11
66%
21-11
62%
21-13
ATS
69%
22-10
65%
22-12
66%
21-11
62%
21-13
TTL
50%
16-16
65%
22-12
100%
32-0
100%
34-0
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