KANSAS STATE
WILDCATSKSU
11-15 | Road
72
TEXAS TECH
RED RAIDERSTTU
19-7 | Home
100
AI Model Win Probability
WILDCATS
100%
RED RAIDERS
0%
WILDCATS
--
RED RAIDERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
142.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
TEXAS TECH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Texas Tech)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TTU -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TTU)
KSU By 1-7 points
5.8%
KSU By 8-14 points
1.4%
TTU By 1-7 points
16.9%
TTU By 8-14 points
26.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Kansas State
64
KANSAS STATE
Texas Tech
78
TEXAS TECH
Simulated Score
Kansas State
70
KANSAS STATE
Texas Tech
75
TEXAS TECH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Red Raiders
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Raiders
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Red Raiders (-12.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim
Red Raiders (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u158.5
Loss
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Sim
u158.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 21, 2026
KSU @ TTU
72 - 100
Jan 14, 2025
TTU @ KSU
61 - 57
Jan 13, 2024
KSU @ TTU
59 - 60
Feb 11, 2023
KSU @ TTU
63 - 71
Jan 21, 2023
TTU @ KSU
58 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+52.9% more
Texas Tech: 4.5
vs
Kansas State: 2.9
Rebounding (L5)
+20.3% more
Texas Tech: 37.4
vs
Kansas State: 31.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.9%
Texas Tech: 39.8%
vs
Kansas State: 37.0%
Steals (L5)
+39.4% more
Kansas State: 9.3
vs
Texas Tech: 5.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
KSU Score
64.0
72
TTU Score
78.0
100
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.8 / 37.0
46.0 / 30.0
Assists
15.0 / 15.6
18.0 / 8.0
Blocks
4.5 / 2.9
8.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
44.0 / 45.9
55.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
72.9 / 72.3
83.0 / 59.0
Rebounding
37.4 / 31.1
40.0 / 28.0
Steals
5.7 / 9.3
1.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
12.6 / 15.6
6.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KSU
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -2.3
ATS +/-: -2.9
TTU
Advantage
23-11-0
(67.7%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KSU
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -2.3
ATS +/-: -2.9
TTU
Advantage
17-17-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
KSU
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9%
Total +/-: +0.1
TTU
15-19-0
O: 44.1% / U: 55.9%
Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TTU
KSU
TTU
KSU
ML
62%
21-13
59%
19-13
71%
22-9
69%
22-10
ATS
65%
22-12
62%
20-12
71%
22-9
69%
22-10
TTL
59%
20-14
47%
15-17
100%
31-0
100%
32-0
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