Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Hurricanes @ Cavaliers MIA @ UVA

MIAMI

HURRICANESMIA

21-5  |  Road

83
FINAL
Sat, Feb 21 • 2:00 PM ET
John Paul Jones Arena
View Odds Details →

VIRGINIA

CAVALIERSUVA

23-3  |  Home

86
AI Model Win Probability
HURRICANES
100%
📊
CAVALIERS
0%
HURRICANES --
CAVALIERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
137.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
VIRGINIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (Virginia)
HurricanesMIA (-3.5) 0 CavaliersUVA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hurricanes Cover

2.9%

Cavaliers Cover

97.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UVA -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UVA)

MIA By 1-7 points

2.2%

MIA By 8-14 points

0.4%

UVA By 1-7 points

9.3%

UVA By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
59
MIAMI
78
VIRGINIA
Simulated Score
58
MIAMI
62
VIRGINIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cavaliers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cavaliers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cavaliers (-7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Sim Cavaliers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u145.5 Loss
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Sim u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 120.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 13, 2026 MIA @ UVA 62 - 84
Feb 21, 2026 MIA @ UVA 83 - 86
Jan 29, 2025 UVA @ MIA 82 - 71
Feb 5, 2024 MIA @ UVA 38 - 60
Dec 20, 2022 UVA @ MIA 64 - 66
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +149.0% more
Virginia: 6.4 vs Miami: 2.6
Assists (L5) +57.6% more
Virginia: 16.7 vs Miami: 10.6
Steals (L5) +27.9% more
Virginia: 8.1 vs Miami: 6.3
Turnovers (L5) +25.3% more
Virginia: 12.4 vs Miami: 9.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 59.0 83
UVA Score 78.0 86
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.8 / 26.1 50.0 / 50.0
Assists 16.7 / 10.6 18.0 / 16.0
Blocks 6.4 / 2.6 8.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 43.2 / 47.7 58.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 65.1 / 62.3 89.0 / 94.0
Rebounding 44.7 / 37.0 23.0 / 30.0
Steals 8.1 / 6.3 6.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 12.4 / 9.9 9.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
27%MONEY73%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
46%MONEY54%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
26-9-0 (74.3%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
UVA Advantage
30-6-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: +1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA Advantage
18-15-1 (54.6%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
UVA
17-17-2 (50.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: +1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
21-12-1
O: 63.6% / U: 36.4% Total +/-: +0.4
UVA
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UVA
MIA
UVA
MIA
ML
67% 24-12
63% 22-13
72% 26-10
64% 21-12
ATS
75% 27-9
63% 22-13
72% 26-10
64% 21-12
TTL
53% 19-17
63% 22-13
100% 36-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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