PENN STATE
NITTANY LIONSPSU
11-16 | Road
64
NEBRASKA
CORNHUSKERSNEB
22-4 | Home
87
AI Model Win Probability
NITTANY LIONS
100%
CORNHUSKERS
0%
NITTANY LIONS
--
CORNHUSKERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
121.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
NEBRASKA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Nebraska)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NEB -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NEB)
PSU By 1-7 points
21.6%
PSU By 8-14 points
10.7%
NEB By 1-7 points
27.2%
NEB By 8-14 points
20.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Penn State
59
PENN STATE
Nebraska
62
NEBRASKA
Simulated Score
Penn State
65
PENN STATE
Nebraska
78
NEBRASKA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cornhuskers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cornhuskers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cornhuskers (+17.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Cornhuskers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u147.5
Loss
Proj Total: 121.0
D
Sim
u147.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 21, 2026
PSU @ NEB
64 - 87
Feb 19, 2025
NEB @ PSU
72 - 89
Feb 17, 2024
PSU @ NEB
49 - 68
Feb 5, 2023
PSU @ NEB
63 - 72
Jan 21, 2023
NEB @ PSU
65 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+56.8% more
Nebraska: 15.4
vs
Penn State: 9.9
Blocks (L5)
+22.8% more
Nebraska: 2.7
vs
Penn State: 2.2
Rebounding (L5)
+17.9% more
Nebraska: 31.4
vs
Penn State: 26.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.6%
Nebraska: 33.2%
vs
Penn State: 26.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PSU Score
59.0
64
NEB Score
62.0
87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.2 / 26.7
40.0 / 20.0
Assists
15.4 / 9.9
22.0 / 13.0
Blocks
2.7 / 2.2
4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
43.9 / 48.6
52.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
77.8 / 77.3
75.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
31.4 / 26.7
36.0 / 33.0
Steals
8.2 / 8.0
7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
12.3 / 12.2
11.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PSU
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -5.7
ATS +/-: -3.3
NEB
Advantage
28-7-0
(80.0%)
Margin: 10.8
ATS +/-: +2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PSU
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -5.7
ATS +/-: -3.3
NEB
Advantage
19-15-1
(55.9%)
Margin: 10.8
ATS +/-: +2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
PSU
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8%
Total +/-: +1.8
NEB
11-24-0
O: 31.4% / U: 68.6%
Total +/-: -6.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NEB
PSU
NEB
PSU
ML
51%
18-17
72%
23-9
62%
21-13
56%
18-14
ATS
54%
19-16
72%
23-9
62%
21-13
56%
18-14
TTL
63%
22-13
66%
21-11
100%
34-0
100%
32-0
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