Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Eagles @ Mountaineers GASO @ APP

GEORGIA SOUTHERN

EAGLESGASO

15-13  |  Road

74
FINAL
Sat, Feb 21 • 1:00 PM ET
Holmes Convocation Center
View Odds Details →

APP STATE

MOUNTAINEERSAPP

18-11  |  Home

89
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
100%
📊
MOUNTAINEERS
0%
EAGLES --
MOUNTAINEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
APP STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (App State)
EaglesGASO (-3.5) 0 MountaineersAPP (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Eagles Cover

2.9%

Mountaineers Cover

97.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around APP -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (APP)

GASO By 1-7 points

2.2%

GASO By 8-14 points

0.4%

APP By 1-7 points

9.3%

APP By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
66
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
85
APP STATE
Simulated Score
71
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
78
APP STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mountaineers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mountaineers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mountaineers (+23.5) Win
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Sim Mountaineers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u165.5 Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim u165.5 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 21, 2026 GASO @ APP 74 - 89
Feb 11, 2026 APP @ GASO 81 - 65
Feb 25, 2025 APP @ GASO 59 - 61
Feb 20, 2025 GASO @ APP 74 - 79
Mar 9, 2024 GASO @ APP 80 - 85
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5) +2.8%
App State: 43.9% vs Georgia Southern: 41.1%
Steals (L5) +32.7% more
Georgia Southern: 6.3 vs App State: 4.2
Blocks (L5) +20.8% more
Georgia Southern: 4.3 vs App State: 3.4
Turnovers (L5) +14.8% more
Georgia Southern: 10.0 vs App State: 8.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GASO Score 66.0 74
APP Score 85.0 89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.4 / 33.6 32.0 / 35.0
Assists 10.4 / 11.5 15.0 / 8.0
Blocks 3.4 / 4.3 1.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 43.9 / 41.1 51.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 66.5 / 72.7 78.0 / 88.0
Rebounding 37.8 / 35.9 37.0 / 27.0
Steals 4.2 / 6.3 7.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 8.5 / 10.0 12.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
29%MONEY71%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GASO
21-16-0 (56.8%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-: -0.1
APP Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GASO
17-18-0 (48.6%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-: -0.1
APP Advantage
16-13-1 (55.2%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
GASO
18-17-0
O: 51.4% / U: 48.6% Total +/-: +2.6
APP
12-18-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
APP
GASO
APP
GASO
ML
62% 20-12
56% 20-16
59% 19-13
58% 19-14
ATS
59% 19-13
64% 23-13
59% 19-13
58% 19-14
TTL
69% 22-10
61% 22-14
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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