DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
35-21 | Road
157
PORTLAND
TRAIL BLAZERSPOR
27-29 | Home
103
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
0%
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
NUGGETS
--
TRAIL BLAZERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
241.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (Denver)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DEN -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)
DEN By 1-7 points
9.3%
DEN By 8-14 points
20.1%
POR By 1-7 points
2.2%
POR By 8-14 points
0.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Denver
130
DENVER
Portland
111
PORTLAND
Simulated Score
Denver
105
DENVER
Portland
118
PORTLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Nuggets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Trail Blazers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Nuggets (-1)
Win
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Sim
Trail Blazers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o240.0
Win
Proj Total: 241.0
D
Sim
u240.0
Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 6, 2026
POR @ DEN
132 - 137
Mar 22, 2026
POR @ DEN
112 - 128
Feb 20, 2026
DEN @ POR
157 - 103
Oct 31, 2025
DEN @ POR
107 - 109
Mar 21, 2025
DEN @ POR
109 - 128
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+105.1% more
Portland: 5.7
vs
Denver: 2.8
Turnovers (L5)
+37.7% more
Portland: 20.8
vs
Denver: 15.1
Rebounding (L5)
+11.2% more
Portland: 50.0
vs
Denver: 45.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DEN Score
130.0
157
POR Score
111.0
103
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.1 / 37.3
32.0 / 51.0
Assists
27.4 / 28.6
25.0 / 41.0
Blocks
5.7 / 2.8
5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
47.9 / 48.4
41.0 / 57.0
Free Throw %
76.6 / 76.9
62.0 / 81.0
Rebounding
50.0 / 45.0
36.0 / 60.0
Steals
6.7 / 6.6
8.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
20.8 / 15.1
18.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
POR
44-44-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
POR
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
POR
DEN
POR
DEN
ML
53%
56-49
54%
57-48
55%
49-40
55%
47-39
ATS
62%
65-39-1
63%
65-38-2
55%
49-40
55%
47-39
TTL
56%
58-46-1
54%
56-48-1
100%
89-0
100%
86-0
Contextual Game News
Tyler Kolek's Girlfriend Spills: Knicks Parade Police Mix-Up Hap…
Cooper Flagg and Mavericks Face Media at NBA China Games in Macao
ATLAS League Launches to Crown World Champion in High School Bas…
Luka Doncic Embraces Lakers Legacy: 'It's an Honor, Not Pressure…
Boston Celtics' Young Wings Face Huge Opportunity After Jaylen B…