NORTHERN ARIZONA
LUMBERJACKSNAU
10-17 | Road
77
NORTHERN COLORADO
BEARSUNCO
17-10 | Home
78
AI Model Win Probability
LUMBERJACKS
100%
BEARS
0%
LUMBERJACKS
--
BEARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
135.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
NORTHERN COLORADO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Northern Colorado)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNCO -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNCO)
NAU By 1-7 points
4.8%
NAU By 8-14 points
1.1%
UNCO By 1-7 points
15.3%
UNCO By 8-14 points
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Northern Arizona
60
NORTHERN ARIZONA
Northern Colorado
75
NORTHERN COLORADO
Simulated Score
Northern Arizona
75
NORTHERN ARIZONA
Northern Colorado
78
NORTHERN COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bears
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bears
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bears (-12.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim
Bears (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u149.5
Loss
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Sim
u149.5
Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 21, 2026
NAU @ UNCO
77 - 78
Jan 24, 2026
UNCO @ NAU
77 - 81
Mar 1, 2025
UNCO @ NAU
83 - 73
Feb 1, 2025
NAU @ UNCO
69 - 87
Mar 4, 2024
UNCO @ NAU
82 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+76.7% more
Northern Colorado: 3.9
vs
Northern Arizona: 2.2
Rebounding (L5)
+46.6% more
Northern Colorado: 38.5
vs
Northern Arizona: 26.3
Assists (L5)
+34.9% more
Northern Colorado: 17.6
vs
Northern Arizona: 13.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+8.2%
Northern Colorado: 77.7%
vs
Northern Arizona: 69.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NAU Score
60.0
77
UNCO Score
75.0
78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.6 / 33.7
27.0 / 35.0
Assists
17.6 / 13.1
11.0 / 6.0
Blocks
3.9 / 2.2
6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
49.1 / 46.7
54.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
77.7 / 69.5
73.0 / 74.0
Rebounding
38.5 / 26.3
33.0 / 30.0
Steals
4.1 / 5.7
2.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
9.8 / 9.2
10.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NAU
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -5.1
ATS +/-: -2.7
UNCO
Advantage
20-12-0
(62.5%)
Margin: 6.0
ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NAU
14-15-0
(48.3%)
Margin: -5.1
ATS +/-: -2.7
UNCO
Advantage
15-13-1
(53.6%)
Margin: 6.0
ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
NAU
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1%
Total +/-: -2.3
UNCO
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNCO
NAU
UNCO
NAU
ML
50%
16-16
62%
20-12
66%
21-11
81%
26-6
ATS
53%
17-15
62%
20-12
66%
21-11
81%
26-6
TTL
50%
16-16
66%
21-11
100%
32-0
100%
32-0
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