NORTH CAROLINA A&T
AGGIESNCAT
10-15 | Road
102
ELON
PHOENIXELON
14-13 | Home
82
AI Model Win Probability
AGGIES
100%
PHOENIX
0%
AGGIES
--
PHOENIX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
144.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
ELON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Elon)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ELON -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ELON)
NCAT By 1-7 points
16.9%
NCAT By 8-14 points
6.8%
ELON By 1-7 points
26.8%
ELON By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
North Carolina A&T
69
NORTH CAROLINA A&T
Elon
75
ELON
Simulated Score
North Carolina A&T
70
NORTH CAROLINA A&T
Elon
78
ELON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Phoenix
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Phoenix
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Phoenix (+7.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim
Phoenix (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u153.5
Loss
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Sim
u153.5
Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 21, 2026
NCAT @ ELON
102 - 82
Jan 8, 2026
ELON @ NCAT
69 - 64
Feb 13, 2025
NCAT @ ELON
60 - 59
Jan 2, 2025
ELON @ NCAT
75 - 67
Feb 3, 2024
ELON @ NCAT
69 - 65
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+10.9% more
Elon: 13.0
vs
North Carolina A&T: 11.7
Blocks (L5)
+57.1% more
North Carolina A&T: 4.3
vs
Elon: 1.8
Turnovers (L5)
+22.1% more
North Carolina A&T: 11.1
vs
Elon: 8.7
Field Goal % (L5)
+1.8%
North Carolina A&T: 43.0%
vs
Elon: 41.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NCAT Score
69.0
102
ELON Score
75.0
82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.7 / 32.6
35.0 / 53.0
Assists
13.0 / 11.7
13.0 / 12.0
Blocks
1.8 / 4.3
2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
41.3 / 43.0
42.0 / 67.0
Free Throw %
70.7 / 70.5
75.0 / 86.0
Rebounding
34.6 / 33.5
26.0 / 36.0
Steals
6.7 / 6.5
5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
8.7 / 11.1
8.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NCAT
11-19-0
(36.7%)
Margin: -2.8
ATS +/-: +1.5
ELON
Advantage
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NCAT
Advantage
16-12-0
(57.1%)
Margin: -2.8
ATS +/-: +1.5
ELON
11-19-0
(36.7%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
NCAT
16-12-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9%
Total +/-: +3.6
ELON
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ELON
NCAT
ELON
NCAT
ML
61%
19-12
52%
14-13
71%
22-9
63%
17-10
ATS
55%
17-14
63%
17-10
71%
22-9
64%
18-10
TTL
52%
16-15
69%
18-8-1
100%
31-0
100%
28-0
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