Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Wolverines @ Blue Devils MICH @ DUKE

MICHIGAN

WOLVERINESMICH

25-1  |  Road

63
FINAL
Sat, Feb 21 • 6:30 PM ET
Capital One Arena
View Odds Details →

DUKE

BLUE DEVILSDUKE

24-2  |  Home

68
AI Model Win Probability
WOLVERINES
0%
📊
BLUE DEVILS
100%
WOLVERINES --
BLUE DEVILS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
168.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
MICHIGAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Michigan)
WolverinesMICH (-3.5) 0 Blue DevilsDUKE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wolverines Cover

72.6%

Blue Devils Cover

27.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MICH -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MICH)

MICH By 1-7 points

26.8%

MICH By 8-14 points

24.3%

DUKE By 1-7 points

16.9%

DUKE By 8-14 points

6.8%

AI Model Projected Score
87
MICHIGAN
81
DUKE
Simulated Score
70
MICHIGAN
78
DUKE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Wolverines Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Blue Devils Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Wolverines (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Blue Devils (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o151.5 Loss
Proj Total: 168.0
D
Sim u151.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 21, 2026 MICH @ DUKE 63 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +64.3% more
Michigan: 6.0 vs Duke: 2.1
Turnovers (L5) +30.0% more
Michigan: 11.7 vs Duke: 8.2
Assists (L5) +19.1% more
Michigan: 21.1 vs Duke: 17.1
Free Throw % (L5) +5.8%
Michigan: 75.4% vs Duke: 69.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MICH Score 87.0 63
DUKE Score 81.0 68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 42.8 / 43.2 32.0 / 24.0
Assists 17.1 / 21.1 17.0 / 15.0
Blocks 2.1 / 6.0 5.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 52.7 / 52.6 45.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 69.6 / 75.4 71.0 / 72.0
Rebounding 37.8 / 38.6 41.0 / 28.0
Steals 7.6 / 4.1 4.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 8.2 / 11.7 11.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
55%MONEY45%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
74%MONEY26%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
52%MONEY48%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MICH Advantage
37-3-0 (92.5%)
Margin: 17.8 ATS +/-: +3.6
DUKE
35-3-0 (92.1%)
Margin: 18.0 ATS +/-: +1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MICH
19-21-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 17.8 ATS +/-: +3.6
DUKE Advantage
20-18-0 (52.6%)
Margin: 18.0 ATS +/-: +1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
MICH
17-23-0
O: 42.5% / U: 57.5% Total +/-: -1.6
DUKE
14-24-0
O: 36.8% / U: 63.2% Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DUKE
MICH
DUKE
MICH
ML
71% 27-11
78% 31-9
73% 24-9
63% 24-14
ATS
79% 30-8
78% 31-9
73% 24-9
63% 24-14
TTL
47% 18-20
57% 23-17
100% 33-0
100% 38-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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