SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
REDHAWKSSEMO
17-11 | Road
70
LITTLE ROCK
TROJANSLR
11-17 | Home
65
AI Model Win Probability
REDHAWKS
0%
TROJANS
100%
REDHAWKS
--
TROJANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
131.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
LITTLE ROCK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around LR +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LR)
SEMO By 1-7 points
27.2%
SEMO By 8-14 points
20.1%
LR By 1-7 points
21.6%
LR By 8-14 points
10.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Southeast Missouri State
67
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
Little Rock
64
LITTLE ROCK
Simulated Score
Southeast Missouri State
72
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
Little Rock
79
LITTLE ROCK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Redhawks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Trojans
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Trojans (+9.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Sim
Trojans (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u160.5
Win
Proj Total: 131.0
D
Sim
u160.5
Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 21, 2026
SEMO @ LR
70 - 65
Jan 22, 2026
LR @ SEMO
65 - 70
Mar 7, 2025
LR @ SEMO
59 - 78
Feb 11, 2025
SEMO @ LR
57 - 45
Jan 14, 2025
LR @ SEMO
73 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+32.3% more
Southeast Missouri State: 5.9
vs
Little Rock: 4.0
Turnovers (L5)
+23.2% more
Southeast Missouri State: 13.6
vs
Little Rock: 10.4
Steals (L5)
+19.6% more
Southeast Missouri State: 7.1
vs
Little Rock: 5.7
Rebounding (L5)
+14.0% more
Southeast Missouri State: 41.0
vs
Little Rock: 35.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SEMO Score
67.0
70
LR Score
64.0
65
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.7 / 26.9
27.0 / 23.0
Assists
13.1 / 10.0
14.0 / 8.0
Blocks
4.0 / 5.9
6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
45.0 / 39.1
38.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
63.7 / 68.8
89.0 / 68.0
Rebounding
35.3 / 41.0
31.0 / 38.0
Steals
5.7 / 7.1
7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
10.4 / 13.6
9.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEMO
Advantage
20-13-0
(60.6%)
Margin: 3.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
LR
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -3.6
ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEMO
Advantage
14-16-0
(46.7%)
Margin: 3.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
LR
12-18-0
(40.0%)
Margin: -3.6
ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
SEMO
13-17-0
O: 43.3% / U: 56.7%
Total +/-: -2.4
LR
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LR
SEMO
LR
SEMO
ML
52%
16-15
64%
21-12
68%
17-8
50%
15-15
ATS
45%
14-17
67%
22-11
68%
17-8
50%
15-15
TTL
58%
18-13
58%
19-14
100%
25-0
100%
30-0
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