Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Buccaneers @ Spartans ETSU @ UNCG

EAST TENNESSEE STATE

BUCCANEERSETSU

20-8  |  Road

87
FINAL
Sat, Feb 21 • 4:00 PM ET
Bodford Arena
View Odds Details →

UNC GREENSBORO

SPARTANSUNCG

12-16  |  Home

75
AI Model Win Probability
BUCCANEERS
100%
📊
SPARTANS
0%
BUCCANEERS --
SPARTANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
154.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
UNC GREENSBORO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (UNC Greensboro)
BuccaneersETSU (-3.5) 0 SpartansUNCG (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Buccaneers Cover

34.5%

Spartans Cover

65.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNCG -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNCG)

ETSU By 1-7 points

20.1%

ETSU By 8-14 points

9.3%

UNCG By 1-7 points

27.4%

UNCG By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
75
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
79
UNC GREENSBORO
Simulated Score
68
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
72
UNC GREENSBORO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Spartans Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Spartans Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Spartans (+6.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Spartans (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o148.5 Win
Proj Total: 154.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 21, 2026 ETSU @ UNCG 87 - 75
Jan 10, 2026 UNCG @ ETSU 60 - 86
Feb 19, 2025 UNCG @ ETSU 49 - 65
Jan 29, 2025 ETSU @ UNCG 65 - 70
Mar 9, 2024 ETSU @ UNCG 73 - 62
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5) +5.2%
UNC Greensboro: 49.9% vs East Tennessee State: 44.8%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.0%
UNC Greensboro: 40.5% vs East Tennessee State: 37.5%
Steals (L5) +28.1% more
East Tennessee State: 7.9 vs UNC Greensboro: 5.7
Blocks (L5) +20.6% more
East Tennessee State: 3.3 vs UNC Greensboro: 2.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ETSU Score 75.0 87
UNCG Score 79.0 75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.5 / 37.5 38.0 / 45.0
Assists 13.3 / 13.8 13.0 / 14.0
Blocks 2.6 / 3.3 0.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 49.9 / 44.8 52.0 / 60.0
Free Throw % 72.4 / 76.9 67.0 / 86.0
Rebounding 31.4 / 36.0 26.0 / 26.0
Steals 5.7 / 7.9 10.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 9.0 / 10.3 13.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
95%TICKETS5%
91%MONEY9%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
67%MONEY33%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
100%MONEY0%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ETSU Advantage
23-11-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +0.5
UNCG
15-19-0 (44.1%)
Margin: -1.9 ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ETSU
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +0.5
UNCG
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: -1.9 ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
ETSU
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +2.5
UNCG
22-10-0
O: 68.8% / U: 31.3% Total +/-: +7.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNCG
ETSU
UNCG
ETSU
ML
38% 13-21
42% 14-19
71% 24-10
70% 23-10
ATS
44% 15-19
58% 19-14
71% 24-10
70% 23-10
TTL
76% 26-8
45% 15-18
100% 34-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Michigan State Lands Five-Star Point Guard Antonio Pemberton: Wh…
yahoo 2 weeks, 6 days ago
Brady Pretzlaff's Long Road Back to Spartan Stadium: A Promise F…
yahoo 3 weeks, 5 days ago
Virginia Set for Friday Night Blowout Against Norfolk State, Ana…
si 4 weeks ago
Former Michigan State Forward Jaxon Kohler Finds New Home at BYU
newspub_live 1 month, 2 weeks ago
Jayhawks Coach on NFL-to-College Pipeline: 'Nothing Surprises Me…
kansascity 1 month, 2 weeks ago