ARIZONA STATE
SUN DEVILSASU
14-12 | Road
68
BAYLOR
BEARSBAY
13-13 | Home
73
AI Model Win Probability
SUN DEVILS
0%
BEARS
100%
SUN DEVILS
--
BEARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
150.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
ARIZONA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Arizona State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ASU -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ASU)
ASU By 1-7 points
23.0%
ASU By 8-14 points
27.2%
BAY By 1-7 points
10.7%
BAY By 8-14 points
3.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona State
80
ARIZONA STATE
Baylor
70
BAYLOR
Simulated Score
Arizona State
70
ARIZONA STATE
Baylor
78
BAYLOR
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Sun Devils
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bears
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Sun Devils (-7.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Bears (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u157.5
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Sim
u157.5
Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 10, 2026
BAY @ ASU
79 - 83
Feb 21, 2026
ASU @ BAY
68 - 73
Jan 11, 2025
BAY @ ASU
72 - 66
Nov 24, 2021
ASU @ BAY
63 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+12.9% more
Arizona State: 5.1
vs
Baylor: 4.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+9.1%
Arizona State: 33.3%
vs
Baylor: 24.2%
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.3%
Arizona State: 78.2%
vs
Baylor: 74.9%
Turnovers (L5)
+38.6% more
Baylor: 13.5
vs
Arizona State: 9.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ASU Score
80.0
68
BAY Score
70.0
73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
24.2 / 33.3
43.0 / 30.0
Assists
12.5 / 12.8
16.0 / 11.0
Blocks
4.4 / 5.1
0.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
43.1 / 42.2
57.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
74.9 / 78.2
46.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
34.7 / 33.9
26.0 / 30.0
Steals
7.6 / 8.0
6.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
13.5 / 9.7
13.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ASU
Advantage
17-16-0
(51.5%)
Margin: -2.0
ATS +/-: +0.9
BAY
17-17-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 5.3
ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ASU
Advantage
20-12-1
(62.5%)
Margin: -2.0
ATS +/-: +0.9
BAY
15-18-0
(45.5%)
Margin: 5.3
ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
ASU
16-17-0
O: 48.5% / U: 51.5%
Total +/-: +0.2
BAY
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAY
ASU
BAY
ASU
ML
58%
19-14
52%
17-16
53%
17-15
68%
21-10
ATS
58%
19-14
52%
17-16
53%
17-15
68%
21-10
TTL
45%
15-18
64%
21-12
100%
32-0
100%
31-0
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