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SOUTH CAROLINA STATE

BULLDOGSSCST

7-18  |  Road

71
FINAL
Sat, Feb 21 • 4:00 PM ET
Joseph G. Echols Hall
View Odds Details →

NORFOLK STATE

SPARTANSNORF

13-14  |  Home

90
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
0%
📊
SPARTANS
100%
BULLDOGS --
SPARTANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
138.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
SOUTH CAROLINA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (South Carolina State)
BulldogsSCST (-3.5) 0 SpartansNORF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

78.8%

Spartans Cover

21.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SCST -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SCST)

SCST By 1-7 points

25.3%

SCST By 8-14 points

26.2%

NORF By 1-7 points

13.7%

NORF By 8-14 points

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
73
SOUTH CAROLINA STATE
65
NORFOLK STATE
Simulated Score
65
SOUTH CAROLINA STATE
78
NORFOLK STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Spartans Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs (-7.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim Spartans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u153.5 Loss
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Sim u153.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 12, 2026 SCST @ NORF 88 - 82
Feb 21, 2026 SCST @ NORF 71 - 90
Jan 17, 2026 NORF @ SCST 89 - 82
Mar 15, 2025 SCST @ NORF 65 - 66
Mar 1, 2025 NORF @ SCST 88 - 91
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +43.1% more
South Carolina State: 4.3 vs Norfolk State: 2.5
Assists (L5) +29.7% more
South Carolina State: 15.9 vs Norfolk State: 11.2
Free Throw % (L5) +6.0%
South Carolina State: 72.3% vs Norfolk State: 66.3%
Rebounding (L5) +18.0% more
Norfolk State: 32.5 vs South Carolina State: 27.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SCST Score 73.0 71
NORF Score 65.0 90
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.0 / 34.2 56.0 / 36.0
Assists 11.2 / 15.9 16.0 / 9.0
Blocks 2.5 / 4.3 6.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 49.5 / 44.3 59.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 66.3 / 72.3 76.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 32.5 / 27.6 25.0 / 31.0
Steals 7.5 / 8.0 11.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 13.2 / 12.0 13.0 / 23.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
82%MONEY18%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
8%MONEY92%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SCST
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -11.7 ATS +/-: -0.9
NORF Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 2.6 ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SCST
13-16-1 (44.8%)
Margin: -11.7 ATS +/-: -0.9
NORF Advantage
13-15-0 (46.4%)
Margin: 2.6 ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
SCST
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: +0.6
NORF
19-9-0
O: 67.9% / U: 32.1% Total +/-: +4.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NORF
SCST
NORF
SCST
ML
67% 20-10
61% 19-12
71% 20-8
74% 20-7
ATS
63% 19-11
68% 21-10
72% 21-8
74% 20-7
TTL
60% 18-12
52% 16-15
100% 29-0
100% 27-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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