Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Ospreys @ Hatters UNF @ STET

NORTH FLORIDA

OSPREYSUNF

6-22  |  Road

71
FINAL
Sat, Feb 21 • 3:30 PM ET
Edmunds Center
View Odds Details →

STETSON

HATTERSSTET

9-19  |  Home

76
AI Model Win Probability
OSPREYS
0%
📊
HATTERS
100%
OSPREYS --
HATTERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
148.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
NORTH FLORIDA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (North Florida)
OspreysUNF (-3.5) 0 HattersSTET (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ospreys Cover

88.5%

Hatters Cover

11.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UNF -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNF)

UNF By 1-7 points

20.1%

UNF By 8-14 points

27.2%

STET By 1-7 points

8.0%

STET By 8-14 points

2.2%

AI Model Projected Score
80
NORTH FLORIDA
68
STETSON
Simulated Score
72
NORTH FLORIDA
78
STETSON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Ospreys Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Hatters Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Ospreys (-5.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim Hatters (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o136.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Sim u136.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 21, 2026 UNF @ STET 71 - 76
Jan 29, 2026 STET @ UNF 84 - 77
Feb 18, 2025 UNF @ STET 79 - 71
Jan 29, 2025 STET @ UNF 100 - 101
Mar 1, 2024 STET @ UNF 59 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +13.2% more
North Florida: 34.9 vs Stetson: 30.2
Turnovers (L5) +8.2% more
North Florida: 13.5 vs Stetson: 12.4
Blocks (L5) +128.0% more
Stetson: 2.1 vs North Florida: 0.8
Steals (L5) +55.3% more
Stetson: 6.2 vs North Florida: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNF Score 80.0 71
STET Score 68.0 76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 45.1 / 32.5 41.0 / 37.0
Assists 16.2 / 11.6 20.0 / 13.0
Blocks 2.1 / 0.8 2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 49.1 / 43.4 46.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 77.8 / 70.8 54.0 / 64.0
Rebounding 30.2 / 34.9 37.0 / 32.0
Steals 6.2 / 4.0 5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 12.4 / 13.5 12.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNF
7-25-0 (21.9%)
Margin: -8.6 ATS +/-: +1.1
STET Advantage
12-21-0 (36.4%)
Margin: -6.1 ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNF Advantage
17-12-0 (58.6%)
Margin: -8.6 ATS +/-: +1.1
STET
18-13-0 (58.1%)
Margin: -6.1 ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
UNF
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: +3.5
STET
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: +1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STET
UNF
STET
UNF
ML
55% 18-15
69% 22-10
73% 24-9
66% 21-11
ATS
64% 21-12
69% 22-10
73% 24-9
66% 21-11
TTL
61% 20-13
66% 21-11
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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