Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bears @ Panthers MOST @ FIU

MISSOURI STATE

BEARSMOST

13-13  |  Road

67
FINAL
Sat, Feb 21 • 3:00 PM ET
Ocean Bank Convocation Center
View Odds Details →

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL

PANTHERSFIU

12-14  |  Home

70
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
100%
📊
PANTHERS
0%
BEARS --
PANTHERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
154.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Florida International)
BearsMOST (-3.5) 0 PanthersFIU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

34.5%

Panthers Cover

65.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around FIU -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FIU)

MOST By 1-7 points

20.1%

MOST By 8-14 points

9.3%

FIU By 1-7 points

27.4%

FIU By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
75
MISSOURI STATE
79
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Simulated Score
76
MISSOURI STATE
68
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Panthers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bears Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Panthers (+9.5) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Bears (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u160.5 Win
Proj Total: 154.0
D
Sim u160.5 Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 10, 2026 MOST @ FIU 75 - 72
Feb 21, 2026 MOST @ FIU 67 - 70
Jan 10, 2026 FIU @ MOST 71 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +54.4% more
Florida International: 9.7 vs Missouri State: 6.3
Turnovers (L5) +32.9% more
Florida International: 14.2 vs Missouri State: 10.7
Rebounding (L5) +13.5% more
Florida International: 39.3 vs Missouri State: 34.7
Free Throw % (L5) +9.6%
Florida International: 76.2% vs Missouri State: 66.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MOST Score 75.0 67
FIU Score 79.0 70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.6 / 36.0 27.0 / 38.0
Assists 11.2 / 14.9 12.0 / 15.0
Blocks 4.8 / 4.7 5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 44.2 / 43.0 47.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 76.2 / 66.7 67.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 39.3 / 34.7 30.0 / 38.0
Steals 9.7 / 6.3 7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 14.2 / 10.7 9.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
35%MONEY65%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
31%MONEY69%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MOST Advantage
16-18-0 (47.1%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
FIU
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: +1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MOST Advantage
18-13-0 (58.1%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
FIU
16-13-0 (55.2%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: +1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MOST
19-12-0
O: 61.3% / U: 38.7% Total +/-: +3.2
FIU
15-13-1
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4% Total +/-: +1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FIU
MOST
FIU
MOST
ML
58% 18-13
65% 22-12
65% 20-11
62% 21-13
ATS
52% 16-15
68% 23-11
65% 20-11
62% 21-13
TTL
65% 20-11
44% 15-19
100% 31-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
UConn Men's Basketball 2026-27 TV Schedule Revealed: Up to Seven…
courant 1 day, 7 hours ago
Jason Kidd in Advanced Talks to Join ESPN's NBA Countdown as Ana…
yahoo 2 days, 21 hours ago
Nick Saban Declares Georgia the Most Complete Team in College Fo…
si 5 days, 13 hours ago
Northwestern Opens Ryan Field with Record-Breaking Debut Against…
si 6 days, 2 hours ago
Iowa State's Two-Center Experiment: Will Buchanan and Pleta Shar…
iowastatedaily 1 week ago