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TENNESSEE

VOLUNTEERSTENN

19-7  |  Road

69
FINAL
Sat, Feb 21 • 2:00 PM ET
Memorial Gymnasium (TN)
View Odds Details →

VANDERBILT

COMMODORESVAN

21-5  |  Home

65
AI Model Win Probability
VOLUNTEERS
0%
📊
COMMODORES
100%
VOLUNTEERS --
COMMODORES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
140.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
TENNESSEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Tennessee)
VolunteersTENN (-3.5) 0 CommodoresVAN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Volunteers Cover

78.8%

Commodores Cover

21.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TENN -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TENN)

TENN By 1-7 points

25.3%

TENN By 8-14 points

26.2%

VAN By 1-7 points

13.7%

VAN By 8-14 points

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
74
TENNESSEE
66
VANDERBILT
Simulated Score
60
TENNESSEE
75
VANDERBILT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Volunteers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Commodores Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Volunteers (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim Commodores (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Sim u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 13, 2026 TENN @ VAN 68 - 75
Mar 7, 2026 VAN @ TENN 86 - 82
Feb 21, 2026 TENN @ VAN 69 - 65
Feb 15, 2025 VAN @ TENN 76 - 81
Jan 18, 2025 TENN @ VAN 75 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +31.4% more
Tennessee: 18.8 vs Vanderbilt: 12.9
Rebounding (L5) +15.8% more
Tennessee: 41.8 vs Vanderbilt: 35.2
Field Goal % (L5) +2.3%
Tennessee: 46.6% vs Vanderbilt: 44.4%
Blocks (L5) +22.0% more
Vanderbilt: 4.5 vs Tennessee: 3.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TENN Score 74.0 69
VAN Score 66.0 65
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.2 / 33.2 39.0 / 33.0
Assists 12.9 / 18.8 13.0 / 8.0
Blocks 4.5 / 3.7 8.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 44.4 / 46.6 42.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 80.2 / 73.2 67.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 35.2 / 41.8 30.0 / 39.0
Steals 7.2 / 6.9 6.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 9.9 / 9.5 10.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
47%MONEY53%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TENN
25-12-0 (67.6%)
Margin: 9.3 ATS +/-: -1.0
VAN Advantage
27-9-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 10.8 ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TENN
17-19-1 (47.2%)
Margin: 9.3 ATS +/-: -1.0
VAN Advantage
18-18-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 10.8 ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
TENN
18-19-0
O: 48.7% / U: 51.3% Total +/-: 0.0
VAN
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VAN
TENN
VAN
TENN
ML
69% 25-11
46% 17-20
56% 18-14
64% 21-12
ATS
78% 28-8
54% 20-17
56% 18-14
64% 21-12
TTL
58% 21-15
76% 28-9
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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