Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Gators @ Rebels FLA @ MISS

FLORIDA

GATORSFLA

20-6  |  Road

94
FINAL
Sat, Feb 21 • 12:00 PM ET
The Sandy and John Black Pavilion at Ole Miss
View Odds Details →

OLE MISS

REBELSMISS

11-15  |  Home

75
AI Model Win Probability
GATORS
100%
📊
REBELS
0%
GATORS --
REBELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
163.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
OLE MISS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Ole Miss)
GatorsFLA (-3.5) 0 RebelsMISS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Gators Cover

46.0%

Rebels Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MISS -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MISS)

FLA By 1-7 points

24.3%

FLA By 8-14 points

13.7%

MISS By 1-7 points

26.2%

MISS By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
81
FLORIDA
82
OLE MISS
Simulated Score
70
FLORIDA
82
OLE MISS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rebels Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rebels Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rebels (+13.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Rebels (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o151.5 Win
Proj Total: 163.0
D
Sim u151.5 Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 21, 2026 FLA @ MISS 94 - 75
Mar 8, 2025 MISS @ FLA 71 - 90
Jan 10, 2024 FLA @ MISS 85 - 103
Feb 15, 2023 MISS @ FLA 64 - 79
Feb 5, 2022 MISS @ FLA 57 - 62
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +2.4%
Ole Miss: 74.4% vs Florida: 72.0%
Rebounding (L5) +34.0% more
Florida: 45.6 vs Ole Miss: 30.1
Turnovers (L5) +25.8% more
Florida: 11.7 vs Ole Miss: 8.7
Steals (L5) +13.5% more
Florida: 7.4 vs Ole Miss: 6.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FLA Score 81.0 94
MISS Score 82.0 75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.8 / 30.9 13.0 / 50.0
Assists 15.5 / 16.4 12.0 / 26.0
Blocks 3.5 / 3.4 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 45.3 / 47.7 41.0 / 57.0
Free Throw % 74.4 / 72.0 88.0 / 86.0
Rebounding 30.1 / 45.6 24.0 / 39.0
Steals 6.4 / 7.4 10.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 8.7 / 11.7 11.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
96%TICKETS4%
82%MONEY18%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
84%MONEY16%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FLA Advantage
27-8-0 (77.1%)
Margin: 15.6 ATS +/-: +1.4
MISS
--
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FLA Advantage
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: 15.6 ATS +/-: +1.4
MISS
--
⚖️ Over/Under
FLA
14-20-1
O: 41.2% / U: 58.8% Total +/-: -1.9
MISS
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MISS
FLA
MISS
FLA
ML
48% 16-17
77% 27-8
52% 17-16
63% 22-13
ATS
61% 20-13
69% 24-11
52% 17-16
63% 22-13
TTL
64% 21-12
63% 22-13
100% 33-0
100% 35-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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