MIAMI
HEATMIA
29-27 | Road
128
ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
27-30 | Home
97
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
0%
HAWKS
100%
HEAT
--
HAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
241.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIA -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
MIA By 1-7 points
27.2%
MIA By 8-14 points
23.0%
ATL By 1-7 points
18.6%
ATL By 8-14 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
123
MIAMI
Atlanta
118
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Miami
108
MIAMI
Atlanta
112
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Heat
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hawks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Heat (+3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Hawks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u244.5
Win
Proj Total: 241.0
D
Sim
u244.5
Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 12, 2026
ATL @ MIA
117 - 143
Feb 20, 2026
MIA @ ATL
128 - 97
Feb 3, 2026
ATL @ MIA
127 - 115
Dec 26, 2025
MIA @ ATL
126 - 111
Oct 13, 2025
MIA @ ATL
118 - 119
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+12.4% more
Miami: 51.5
vs
Atlanta: 45.1
Turnovers (L5)
+12.3% more
Atlanta: 13.5
vs
Miami: 12.0
Free Throw % (L5)
+1.6%
Atlanta: 78.0%
vs
Miami: 76.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
123.0
128
ATL Score
118.0
97
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.7 / 33.3
42.0 / 37.0
Assists
26.2 / 27.0
26.0 / 31.0
Blocks
4.8 / 5.2
3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
44.2 / 43.1
38.0 / 52.0
Free Throw %
78.0 / 76.4
60.0 / 79.0
Rebounding
45.1 / 51.5
46.0 / 58.0
Steals
9.5 / 9.3
4.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
13.5 / 12.0
13.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
ATL
Advantage
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
ATL
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
MIA
ATL
MIA
ML
50%
52-52
48%
46-50
55%
48-40
59%
48-34
ATS
53%
55-48-1
51%
49-47
55%
48-40
59%
48-34
TTL
53%
55-48-1
59%
57-39
100%
88-0
100%
82-0
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