Home / NBA Projections NBA / Jazz @ Grizzlies UTAH @ MEM

UTAH

JAZZUTAH

18-38  |  Road

114
FINAL
Fri, Feb 20 • 7:00 PM ET
FedExForum
View Odds Details →

MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

20-33  |  Home

123
AI Model Win Probability
JAZZ
100%
📊
GRIZZLIES
0%
JAZZ --
GRIZZLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
218.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Memphis)
JazzUTAH (-3.5) 0 GrizzliesMEM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jazz Cover

34.5%

Grizzlies Cover

65.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MEM -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)

UTAH By 1-7 points

20.1%

UTAH By 8-14 points

9.3%

MEM By 1-7 points

27.4%

MEM By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
107
UTAH
111
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
109
UTAH
118
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Grizzlies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Grizzlies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Grizzlies (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Grizzlies (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u237.0 Push
Proj Total: 218.0
D
Sim u237.0 Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 10, 2026 MEM @ UTAH 101 - 147
Feb 20, 2026 UTAH @ MEM 114 - 123
Dec 23, 2025 MEM @ UTAH 137 - 128
Dec 12, 2025 UTAH @ MEM 130 - 126
Mar 25, 2025 MEM @ UTAH 140 - 103
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +34.3% more
Memphis: 4.3 vs Utah: 3.2
Steals (L5) +13.0% more
Memphis: 12.6 vs Utah: 11.1
Turnovers (L5) +27.4% more
Utah: 17.2 vs Memphis: 12.5
Rebounding (L5) +24.2% more
Utah: 46.9 vs Memphis: 35.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTAH Score 107.0 114
MEM Score 111.0 123
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.0 / 36.1 36.0 / 38.0
Assists 26.5 / 29.5 29.0 / 28.0
Blocks 4.3 / 3.2 6.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 48.3 / 48.7 49.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 78.2 / 79.6 64.0 / 56.0
Rebounding 35.5 / 46.9 45.0 / 49.0
Steals 12.6 / 11.1 15.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 12.5 / 17.2 17.0 / 24.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
52%MONEY48%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTAH
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
MEM Advantage
25-57-0 (30.5%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTAH Advantage
41-41-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
MEM
37-45-0 (45.1%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
UTAH
49-33-0
O: 59.8% / U: 40.2% Total +/-: +5.7
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
UTAH
MEM
UTAH
ML
57% 59-44
60% 96-63
50% 41-41
48% 40-43
ATS
63% 65-38
68% 108-51
50% 41-41
48% 40-43
TTL
70% 71-31-1
75% 119-39-1
100% 82-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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