CLEVELAND
CAVALIERSCLE
35-21 | Road
118
CHARLOTTE
HORNETSCHA
26-30 | Home
113
AI Model Win Probability
CAVALIERS
100%
HORNETS
0%
CAVALIERS
--
HORNETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
217.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
CHARLOTTE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Charlotte)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CHA -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHA)
CLE By 1-7 points
18.6%
CLE By 8-14 points
8.0%
CHA By 1-7 points
27.2%
CHA By 8-14 points
23.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
106
CLEVELAND
Charlotte
111
CHARLOTTE
Simulated Score
Cleveland
101
CLEVELAND
Charlotte
112
CHARLOTTE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Hornets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hornets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Hornets (+5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Hornets (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u229.5
Loss
Proj Total: 217.0
D
Sim
u229.5
Win
Proj Total: 213.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 20, 2026
CLE @ CHA
118 - 113
Jan 21, 2026
CLE @ CHA
94 - 87
Dec 22, 2025
CHA @ CLE
132 - 139
Dec 14, 2025
CHA @ CLE
119 - 111
Mar 7, 2025
CLE @ CHA
118 - 117
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+14.5%
Charlotte: 88.7%
vs
Cleveland: 74.2%
Turnovers (L5)
+14.2% more
Charlotte: 17.1
vs
Cleveland: 15.0
Blocks (L5)
+38.0% more
Cleveland: 6.4
vs
Charlotte: 4.0
Steals (L5)
+18.4% more
Cleveland: 8.8
vs
Charlotte: 7.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
106.0
118
CHA Score
111.0
113
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.9 / 36.4
36.0 / 48.0
Assists
23.9 / 28.7
26.0 / 24.0
Blocks
4.0 / 6.4
4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
42.2 / 51.2
39.0 / 53.0
Free Throw %
88.7 / 74.2
95.0 / 93.0
Rebounding
46.9 / 48.1
45.0 / 39.0
Steals
7.2 / 8.8
5.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
17.1 / 15.0
14.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
Advantage
60-40-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
CHA
45-39-0
(53.6%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
40-60-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
CHA
Advantage
50-34-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0%
Total +/-: +0.9
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9%
Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHA
CLE
CHA
CLE
ML
61%
60-39
60%
69-46
48%
40-44
56%
55-44
ATS
60%
59-40
67%
75-37-3
48%
40-44
56%
55-44
TTL
58%
57-42
59%
68-47
100%
84-0
100%
99-0
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