Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Saints @ Warriors SIE @ MRMK

SIENA

SAINTSSIE

18-9  |  Road

72
FINAL
Fri, Feb 20 • 8:00 PM ET
Lawler Arena
View Odds Details →

MERRIMACK

WARRIORSMRMK

18-9  |  Home

79
AI Model Win Probability
SAINTS
100%
📊
WARRIORS
0%
SAINTS --
WARRIORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-25.0
MERRIMACK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +25.0 points (Merrimack)
SaintsSIE (-3.5) 0 WarriorsMRMK (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Saints Cover

0.6%

Warriors Cover

99.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MRMK -25.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MRMK)

SIE By 1-7 points

0.5%

SIE By 8-14 points

0.1%

MRMK By 1-7 points

3.3%

MRMK By 8-14 points

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
63
SIENA
88
MERRIMACK
Simulated Score
65
SIENA
75
MERRIMACK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Warriors Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Warriors Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Warriors (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -25.0
D
Sim Warriors (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o133.5 Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim u133.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 10, 2026 SIE @ MRMK 64 - 54
Feb 20, 2026 SIE @ MRMK 72 - 79
Jan 9, 2026 MRMK @ SIE 63 - 59
Jan 18, 2025 SIE @ MRMK 58 - 64
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +96.1% more
Merrimack: 9.7 vs Siena: 4.9
Blocks (L5) +84.7% more
Merrimack: 6.4 vs Siena: 3.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +8.9%
Merrimack: 33.2% vs Siena: 24.3%
Free Throw % (L5) +2.6%
Merrimack: 79.4% vs Siena: 76.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SIE Score 63.0 72
MRMK Score 88.0 79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.2 / 24.3 44.0 / 25.0
Assists 11.9 / 12.2 12.0 / 11.0
Blocks 6.4 / 3.5 4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 45.7 / 48.8 40.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 79.4 / 76.9 100.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 29.4 / 33.5 28.0 / 32.0
Steals 9.7 / 4.9 9.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 10.1 / 11.1 8.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
22%MONEY78%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
37%MONEY63%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
35%MONEY65%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SIE
23-12-0 (65.7%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +1.3
MRMK Advantage
23-11-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 2.1 ATS +/-: +2.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SIE Advantage
21-14-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +1.3
MRMK
19-14-1 (57.6%)
Margin: 2.1 ATS +/-: +2.8
⚖️ Over/Under
SIE
11-24-0
O: 31.4% / U: 68.6% Total +/-: -1.9
MRMK
12-22-0
O: 35.3% / U: 64.7% Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MRMK
SIE
MRMK
SIE
ML
47% 16-18
66% 23-12
65% 22-12
48% 16-17
ATS
53% 18-16
66% 23-12
65% 22-12
48% 16-17
TTL
62% 21-13
54% 19-16
100% 34-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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