Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Red Foxes @ Jaspers MRST @ MAN

MARIST

RED FOXESMRST

16-10  |  Road

84
FINAL
Fri, Feb 20 • 7:00 PM ET
Draddy Gymnasium
View Odds Details →

MANHATTAN

JASPERSMAN

12-16  |  Home

70
AI Model Win Probability
RED FOXES
100%
📊
JASPERS
0%
RED FOXES --
JASPERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MANHATTAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Manhattan)
Red FoxesMRST (-3.5) 0 JaspersMAN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Foxes Cover

46.0%

Jaspers Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MAN -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MAN)

MRST By 1-7 points

24.3%

MRST By 8-14 points

13.7%

MAN By 1-7 points

26.2%

MAN By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
72
MARIST
73
MANHATTAN
Simulated Score
68
MARIST
71
MANHATTAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Jaspers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Jaspers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Jaspers (+4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Jaspers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o142.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim u142.5 Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 20, 2026 MRST @ MAN 84 - 70
Dec 7, 2025 MAN @ MRST 68 - 80
Dec 8, 2024 MRST @ MAN 82 - 75
Feb 23, 2024 MRST @ MAN 57 - 50
Dec 3, 2023 MAN @ MRST 56 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +34.7% more
Manhattan: 7.4 vs Marist: 5.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.6%
Manhattan: 39.0% vs Marist: 29.4%
Field Goal % (L5) +4.4%
Manhattan: 44.4% vs Marist: 40.0%
Blocks (L5) +59.7% more
Marist: 3.2 vs Manhattan: 1.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MRST Score 72.0 84
MAN Score 73.0 70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.0 / 29.4 24.0 / 41.0
Assists 12.6 / 12.5 12.0 / 19.0
Blocks 1.3 / 3.2 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 44.4 / 40.0 45.0 / 55.0
Free Throw % 76.5 / 79.9 77.0 / 81.0
Rebounding 34.0 / 35.1 27.0 / 30.0
Steals 7.4 / 5.5 6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 9.4 / 9.9 11.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
83%MONEY17%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
32%MONEY68%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MRST Advantage
19-12-0 (61.3%)
Margin: 5.8 ATS +/-: +1.6
MAN
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -4.9 ATS +/-: -3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MRST Advantage
15-13-1 (53.6%)
Margin: 5.8 ATS +/-: +1.6
MAN
11-19-1 (36.7%)
Margin: -4.9 ATS +/-: -3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MRST
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1% Total +/-: -3.0
MAN
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: +2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MAN
MRST
MAN
MRST
ML
52% 16-15
55% 17-14
68% 21-10
61% 19-12
ATS
52% 16-15
74% 23-8
69% 22-10
61% 19-12
TTL
77% 24-7
52% 16-15
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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