Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Pioneers @ Stags SHU @ FAIR

SACRED HEART

PIONEERSSHU

12-16  |  Road

68
FINAL
Fri, Feb 20 • 7:00 PM ET
Leo D. Mahoney Arena
View Odds Details →

FAIRFIELD

STAGSFAIR

16-11  |  Home

78
AI Model Win Probability
PIONEERS
100%
📊
STAGS
0%
PIONEERS --
STAGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
FAIRFIELD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Fairfield)
PioneersSHU (-3.5) 0 StagsFAIR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pioneers Cover

24.2%

Stags Cover

75.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around FAIR -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FAIR)

SHU By 1-7 points

15.3%

SHU By 8-14 points

5.8%

FAIR By 1-7 points

26.2%

FAIR By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
69
SACRED HEART
76
FAIRFIELD
Simulated Score
71
SACRED HEART
75
FAIRFIELD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Stags Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Stags Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Stags (-4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Stags (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u159.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim u159.5 Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 20, 2026 SHU @ FAIR 68 - 78
Feb 5, 2026 FAIR @ SHU 92 - 87
Mar 11, 2025 FAIR @ SHU 58 - 71
Mar 2, 2025 FAIR @ SHU 62 - 83
Feb 8, 2025 SHU @ FAIR 77 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +96.4% more
Fairfield: 8.2 vs Sacred Heart: 4.2
Blocks (L5) +22.5% more
Sacred Heart: 4.5 vs Fairfield: 3.5
Free Throw % (L5) +10.5%
Sacred Heart: 81.5% vs Fairfield: 71.0%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.5%
Sacred Heart: 37.8% vs Fairfield: 34.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SHU Score 69.0 68
FAIR Score 76.0 78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.3 / 37.8 46.0 / 30.0
Assists 12.8 / 13.5 19.0 / 13.0
Blocks 3.5 / 4.5 4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 44.9 / 44.6 47.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 71.0 / 81.5 53.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 34.5 / 34.3 35.0 / 36.0
Steals 8.2 / 4.2 6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 11.3 / 10.8 8.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
15%MONEY85%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
44%MONEY56%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SHU
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: -1.4 ATS +/-: -1.3
FAIR Advantage
21-13-0 (61.8%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SHU Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -1.4 ATS +/-: -1.3
FAIR
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
SHU
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: +1.5
FAIR
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6% Total +/-: -0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FAIR
SHU
FAIR
SHU
ML
55% 18-15
61% 20-13
61% 20-13
73% 24-9
ATS
48% 16-17
76% 25-8
61% 20-13
73% 24-9
TTL
48% 16-17
58% 19-14
100% 33-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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