Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Purple Eagles @ Mountaineers NIA @ MSM

NIAGARA

PURPLE EAGLESNIA

7-19  |  Road

63
FINAL
Fri, Feb 20 • 7:00 PM ET
Knott Arena
View Odds Details →

MOUNT ST. MARY'S

MOUNTAINEERSMSM

12-15  |  Home

76
AI Model Win Probability
PURPLE EAGLES
0%
📊
MOUNTAINEERS
100%
PURPLE EAGLES --
MOUNTAINEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
163.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Purple EaglesNIA (-3.5) 0 MountaineersMSM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Purple Eagles Cover

46.0%

Mountaineers Cover

54.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MSM +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSM)

NIA By 1-7 points

26.2%

NIA By 8-14 points

16.9%

MSM By 1-7 points

24.3%

MSM By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
82
NIAGARA
81
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
Simulated Score
68
NIAGARA
72
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Purple Eagles Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mountaineers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mountaineers (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim Mountaineers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o131.5 Win
Proj Total: 163.0
D
Sim u131.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 20, 2026 NIA @ MSM 63 - 76
Jan 19, 2026 MSM @ NIA 68 - 58
Feb 14, 2025 MSM @ NIA 84 - 83
Jan 5, 2025 NIA @ MSM 62 - 68
Mar 3, 2024 MSM @ NIA 91 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +27.8% more
Niagara: 4.9 vs Mount St. Mary's: 3.5
Free Throw % (L5) +8.9%
Niagara: 76.5% vs Mount St. Mary's: 67.6%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.7%
Niagara: 40.3% vs Mount St. Mary's: 35.6%
Blocks (L5) +75.6% more
Mount St. Mary's: 2.8 vs Niagara: 1.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NIA Score 82.0 63
MSM Score 81.0 76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.6 / 40.3 31.0 / 20.0
Assists 14.3 / 14.6 14.0 / 13.0
Blocks 2.8 / 1.6 1.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 47.3 / 48.3 53.0 / 35.0
Free Throw % 67.6 / 76.5 63.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 38.3 / 29.0 37.0 / 28.0
Steals 3.5 / 4.9 10.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 14.6 / 10.7 15.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
42%MONEY58%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NIA
8-22-0 (26.7%)
Margin: -7.4 ATS +/-: -1.1
MSM Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NIA
13-16-0 (44.8%)
Margin: -7.4 ATS +/-: -1.1
MSM Advantage
17-13-1 (56.7%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
⚖️ Over/Under
NIA
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: -0.7
MSM
10-21-0
O: 32.3% / U: 67.7% Total +/-: -3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSM
NIA
MSM
NIA
ML
53% 17-15
55% 16-13
61% 19-12
72% 21-8
ATS
62% 20-12
69% 20-9
61% 19-12
72% 21-8
TTL
81% 26-6
55% 16-13
100% 31-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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