AKRON
ZIPSAKR
21-5 | Road
78
BALL STATE
CARDINALSBALL
8-18 | Home
65
AI Model Win Probability
ZIPS
0%
CARDINALS
100%
ZIPS
--
CARDINALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
AKRON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (Akron)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around AKR -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AKR)
AKR By 1-7 points
9.3%
AKR By 8-14 points
20.1%
BALL By 1-7 points
2.2%
BALL By 8-14 points
0.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Akron
85
AKRON
Ball State
66
BALL STATE
Simulated Score
Akron
68
AKRON
Ball State
72
BALL STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Zips
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cardinals
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Zips (+13.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Sim
Cardinals (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o147.5
Loss
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim
u147.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 20, 2026
AKR @ BALL
78 - 65
Jan 13, 2026
BALL @ AKR
77 - 87
Feb 25, 2025
AKR @ BALL
87 - 82
Feb 4, 2025
BALL @ AKR
73 - 81
Jan 9, 2024
AKR @ BALL
80 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+35.9% more
Akron: 3.4
vs
Ball State: 2.2
Assists (L5)
+35.3% more
Akron: 16.2
vs
Ball State: 10.5
Rebounding (L5)
+13.5% more
Akron: 37.7
vs
Ball State: 32.6
Free Throw % (L5)
+10.3%
Akron: 77.2%
vs
Ball State: 66.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
AKR Score
85.0
78
BALL Score
66.0
65
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.5 / 36.6
46.0 / 31.0
Assists
10.5 / 16.2
13.0 / 17.0
Blocks
2.2 / 3.4
1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
38.5 / 46.5
40.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
66.9 / 77.2
67.0 / 73.0
Rebounding
32.6 / 37.7
35.0 / 40.0
Steals
7.6 / 5.9
6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
10.5 / 9.5
14.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
AKR
Advantage
29-6-0
(82.9%)
Margin: 13.9
ATS +/-: +1.3
BALL
12-19-0
(38.7%)
Margin: -2.0
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
AKR
Advantage
17-16-0
(51.5%)
Margin: 13.9
ATS +/-: +1.3
BALL
14-14-1
(50.0%)
Margin: -2.0
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
AKR
15-17-1
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1%
Total +/-: +0.2
BALL
9-19-1
O: 32.1% / U: 67.9%
Total +/-: -6.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BALL
AKR
BALL
AKR
ML
43%
13-17
71%
24-10
62%
18-11
65%
22-12
ATS
67%
20-10
76%
26-8
62%
18-11
65%
22-12
TTL
50%
15-15
59%
20-14
100%
29-0
100%
34-0
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