Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bears @ Hatters CARK @ STET

CENTRAL ARKANSAS

BEARSCARK

17-10  |  Road

88
FINAL
Thu, Feb 19 • 8:00 PM ET
Edmunds Center
View Odds Details →

STETSON

HATTERSSTET

9-18  |  Home

76
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
100%
📊
HATTERS
0%
BEARS --
HATTERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
167.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
STETSON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Stetson)
BearsCARK (-3.5) 0 HattersSTET (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

46.0%

Hatters Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around STET -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STET)

CARK By 1-7 points

24.3%

CARK By 8-14 points

13.7%

STET By 1-7 points

26.2%

STET By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
83
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
84
STETSON
Simulated Score
69
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
78
STETSON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Hatters Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Hatters Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Hatters (+9.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Hatters (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o149.5 Win
Proj Total: 167.0
D
Sim u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 19, 2026 CARK @ STET 88 - 76
Jan 3, 2026 STET @ CARK 73 - 93
Mar 2, 2025 CARK @ STET 77 - 72
Jan 9, 2025 CARK @ STET 65 - 75
Feb 3, 2024 STET @ CARK 73 - 62
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +18.3% more
Stetson: 10.6 vs Central Arkansas: 8.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.8%
Stetson: 41.6% vs Central Arkansas: 37.9%
Steals (L5) +33.8% more
Central Arkansas: 10.3 vs Stetson: 6.8
Assists (L5) +12.6% more
Central Arkansas: 16.4 vs Stetson: 14.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CARK Score 83.0 88
STET Score 84.0 76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 41.6 / 37.9 52.0 / 39.0
Assists 14.3 / 16.4 20.0 / 22.0
Blocks 2.2 / 2.2 2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 47.2 / 45.7 53.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 72.8 / 74.3 88.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 32.4 / 34.6 26.0 / 33.0
Steals 6.8 / 10.3 5.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 10.6 / 8.9 16.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
95%TICKETS5%
75%MONEY25%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
69%MONEY31%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
79%MONEY21%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CARK Advantage
22-12-0 (64.7%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +5.7
STET
12-21-0 (36.4%)
Margin: -6.1 ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CARK Advantage
19-10-3 (65.5%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +5.7
STET
18-13-0 (58.1%)
Margin: -6.1 ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
CARK
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.9
STET
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: +1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STET
CARK
STET
CARK
ML
55% 18-15
67% 22-11
73% 24-9
70% 23-10
ATS
64% 21-12
61% 20-13
73% 24-9
70% 23-10
TTL
61% 20-13
50% 16-16-1
100% 33-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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