Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Grizzlies @ Bengals MONT @ IDST

MONTANA

GRIZZLIESMONT

14-12  |  Road

69
FINAL
Thu, Feb 19 • 9:00 PM ET
Reed Gym
View Odds Details →

IDAHO STATE

BENGALSIDST

10-17  |  Home

73
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
0%
📊
BENGALS
100%
GRIZZLIES --
BENGALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
192.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
MONTANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Montana)
GrizzliesMONT (-3.5) 0 BengalsIDST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Grizzlies Cover

72.6%

Bengals Cover

27.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MONT -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MONT)

MONT By 1-7 points

26.8%

MONT By 8-14 points

24.3%

IDST By 1-7 points

16.9%

IDST By 8-14 points

6.8%

AI Model Projected Score
99
MONTANA
93
IDAHO STATE
Simulated Score
68
MONTANA
74
IDAHO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Grizzlies Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bengals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Grizzlies (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Bengals (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o149.5 Loss
Proj Total: 192.0
D
Sim u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 19, 2026 MONT @ IDST 69 - 73
Jan 24, 2026 IDST @ MONT 60 - 69
Feb 13, 2025 IDST @ MONT 68 - 81
Jan 18, 2025 MONT @ IDST 62 - 86
Mar 12, 2024 IDST @ MONT 58 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +38.8% more
Montana: 15.1 vs Idaho State: 9.3
Turnovers (L5) +23.1% more
Montana: 13.5 vs Idaho State: 10.4
Rebounding (L5) +11.5% more
Montana: 33.9 vs Idaho State: 30.0
Steals (L5) +10.5% more
Montana: 6.3 vs Idaho State: 5.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MONT Score 99.0 69
IDST Score 93.0 73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.7 / 35.4 33.0 / 43.0
Assists 9.3 / 15.1 7.0 / 11.0
Blocks 2.6 / 1.4 7.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 41.1 / 47.6 45.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 79.8 / 77.9 82.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 30.0 / 33.9 33.0 / 29.0
Steals 5.6 / 6.3 8.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 10.4 / 13.5 12.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
91%MONEY9%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
79%MONEY21%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
20%MONEY80%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MONT Advantage
18-16-0 (52.9%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: -0.4
IDST
13-20-0 (39.4%)
Margin: -1.6 ATS +/-: -2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MONT Advantage
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: -0.4
IDST
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -1.6 ATS +/-: -2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
MONT
14-15-1
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: -0.4
IDST
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3% Total +/-: +5.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IDST
MONT
IDST
MONT
ML
59% 19-13
39% 13-20
72% 23-9
73% 24-9
ATS
50% 16-16
55% 18-15
72% 23-9
73% 24-9
TTL
59% 19-13
59% 19-13-1
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Tom Moore Retires from UConn GM Role, Eyes Broadcasting Career
yahoo 2 days, 12 hours ago
Duke Hosts Five-Star Asa Montgomery for Official Visit, Looking …
yahoo 1 week ago
Kyrie Irving Declares Himself Ready, Cooper Flagg Reveals Growth…
yardbarker 1 week, 6 days ago
West Virginia Men's Basketball Opens Fall Practice with Revamped…
wvnews 2 weeks, 3 days ago
Washburn Coach Brett Ballard Reveals Neurological Episode Caused…
kansascity 2 weeks, 6 days ago