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MONTANA STATE

BOBCATSMTST

15-11  |  Road

79
FINAL
Thu, Feb 19 • 9:00 PM ET
Dee Events Center
View Odds Details →

WEBER STATE

WILDCATSWEB

13-14  |  Home

82
AI Model Win Probability
BOBCATS
0%
📊
WILDCATS
100%
BOBCATS --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
134.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-30.0
MONTANA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +30.0 points (Montana State)
BobcatsMTST (-3.5) 0 WildcatsWEB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bobcats Cover

99.9%

Wildcats Cover

0.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MTST -30.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MTST)

MTST By 1-7 points

1.1%

MTST By 8-14 points

4.8%

WEB By 1-7 points

0.1%

WEB By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
82
MONTANA STATE
52
WEBER STATE
Simulated Score
68
MONTANA STATE
72
WEBER STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bobcats Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wildcats Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bobcats (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -30.0
D
Sim Wildcats (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u146.5 Loss
Proj Total: 134.0
D
Sim u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 19, 2026 MTST @ WEB 79 - 82
Jan 24, 2026 WEB @ MTST 88 - 91
Feb 13, 2025 WEB @ MTST 66 - 74
Jan 18, 2025 MTST @ WEB 80 - 71
Mar 11, 2024 MTST @ WEB 91 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +71.7% more
Montana State: 3.1 vs Weber State: 0.9
Steals (L5) +16.2% more
Montana State: 7.2 vs Weber State: 6.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.2%
Montana State: 37.3% vs Weber State: 31.1%
Turnovers (L5) +16.2% more
Weber State: 8.7 vs Montana State: 7.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MTST Score 82.0 79
WEB Score 52.0 82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.1 / 37.3 24.0 / 29.0
Assists 10.8 / 11.2 14.0 / 11.0
Blocks 0.9 / 3.1 1.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 44.1 / 44.8 45.0 / 50.0
Free Throw % 80.2 / 74.2 74.0 / 78.0
Rebounding 32.3 / 29.7 42.0 / 33.0
Steals 6.0 / 7.2 11.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 8.7 / 7.5 9.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
20%MONEY80%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
73%MONEY27%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
21%MONEY79%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MTST Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 6.5 ATS +/-: +1.9
WEB
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MTST Advantage
16-12-1 (57.1%)
Margin: 6.5 ATS +/-: +1.9
WEB
16-14-0 (53.3%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MTST
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.5
WEB
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +3.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WEB
MTST
WEB
MTST
ML
73% 22-8
52% 16-15
73% 22-8
67% 20-10
ATS
63% 19-11
52% 16-15
74% 23-8
67% 20-10
TTL
83% 25-5
65% 20-11
100% 31-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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