Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mustangs @ Rainbow Warriors CP @ HAW

CAL POLY

MUSTANGSCP

11-16  |  Road

86
FINAL
Thu, Feb 19 • 11:59 PM ET
Stan Sheriff Center
View Odds Details →

HAWAI'I

RAINBOW WARRIORSHAW

18-6  |  Home

75
AI Model Win Probability
MUSTANGS
100%
📊
RAINBOW WARRIORS
0%
MUSTANGS --
RAINBOW WARRIORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
125.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-41.0
HAWAI'I
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +41.0 points (Hawai'i)
MustangsCP (-3.5) 0 Rainbow WarriorsHAW (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mustangs Cover

0.0%

Rainbow Warriors Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HAW -41.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HAW)

CP By 1-7 points

0.0%

CP By 8-14 points

0.0%

HAW By 1-7 points

0.0%

HAW By 8-14 points

0.4%

AI Model Projected Score
42
CAL POLY
83
HAWAI'I
Simulated Score
65
CAL POLY
72
HAWAI'I
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rainbow Warriors Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rainbow Warriors Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rainbow Warriors (-10.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -41.0
D
Sim Rainbow Warriors (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u161.5 Win
Proj Total: 125.0
D
Sim u161.5 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 19, 2026 CP @ HAW 86 - 75
Jan 15, 2026 HAW @ CP 86 - 66
Feb 6, 2025 HAW @ CP 63 - 79
Jan 4, 2025 CP @ HAW 55 - 68
Feb 15, 2024 HAW @ CP 80 - 51
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +11.8% more
Cal Poly: 14.3 vs Hawai'i: 12.6
Free Throw % (L5) +10.9%
Cal Poly: 83.1% vs Hawai'i: 72.2%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.3%
Cal Poly: 45.9% vs Hawai'i: 43.6%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +1.9%
Cal Poly: 34.9% vs Hawai'i: 33.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CP Score 42.0 86
HAW Score 83.0 75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.0 / 34.9 13.0 / 29.0
Assists 12.6 / 14.3 2.0 / 9.0
Blocks 3.0 / 3.2 4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 43.6 / 45.9 38.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 72.2 / 83.1 68.0 / 81.0
Rebounding 38.8 / 38.4 44.0 / 34.0
Steals 6.6 / 6.7 4.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 15.1 / 14.7 17.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CP
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: -2.9 ATS +/-: +1.3
HAW Advantage
24-9-0 (72.7%)
Margin: 9.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CP Advantage
16-14-1 (53.3%)
Margin: -2.9 ATS +/-: +1.3
HAW
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: 9.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
CP
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2% Total +/-: +0.8
HAW
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HAW
CP
HAW
CP
ML
61% 20-13
58% 19-14
68% 21-10
58% 19-14
ATS
67% 22-11
64% 21-12
68% 21-10
58% 19-14
TTL
61% 20-13
61% 20-13
100% 31-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Kansas Shakes Up Offensive Line: Amir Herring Promoted to Starti…
si 2 days, 7 hours ago
Melvin Council Jr. Wins Eligibility Appeal, Returns to Kansas fo…
kwch 4 days, 1 hour ago
Kansas Jayhawks Set Program Record with 706 Yards, Blank Middle …
si 5 days, 1 hour ago
UCLA's Unlikely Heroes: TaShawn James, Jalen Woods, and Semaj Mo…
si 5 days, 13 hours ago
Keyshawn Hall Wins Temporary Restraining Order, Cleared to Suit …
saturdaydownsouth 6 days, 7 hours ago