Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Aggies @ Titans UCD @ CSUF

UC DAVIS

AGGIESUCD

16-10  |  Road

92
FINAL
Thu, Feb 19 • 10:00 PM ET
Titan Gym
View Odds Details →

CAL STATE FULLERTON

TITANSCSUF

13-14  |  Home

93
AI Model Win Probability
AGGIES
100%
📊
TITANS
0%
AGGIES --
TITANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
156.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
CAL STATE FULLERTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Cal State Fullerton)
AggiesUCD (-3.5) 0 TitansCSUF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Aggies Cover

15.9%

Titans Cover

84.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CSUF -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CSUF)

UCD By 1-7 points

10.7%

UCD By 8-14 points

3.3%

CSUF By 1-7 points

23.0%

CSUF By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
73
UC DAVIS
83
CAL STATE FULLERTON
Simulated Score
70
UC DAVIS
78
CAL STATE FULLERTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Titans Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Titans Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Titans (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Titans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o155.5 Win
Proj Total: 156.0
D
Sim u155.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 12, 2026 UCD @ CSUF 70 - 82
Feb 19, 2026 UCD @ CSUF 92 - 93
Jan 15, 2026 CSUF @ UCD 69 - 74
Feb 8, 2025 UCD @ CSUF 65 - 49
Jan 9, 2025 CSUF @ UCD 53 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +17.4% more
UC Davis: 13.4 vs Cal State Fullerton: 11.1
Steals (L5) +8.4% more
UC Davis: 9.2 vs Cal State Fullerton: 8.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UCD Score 73.0 92
CSUF Score 83.0 93
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.2 / 34.6 40.0 / 41.0
Assists 15.5 / 14.5 22.0 / 23.0
Blocks 3.7 / 3.7 5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 42.1 / 42.5 62.0 / 50.0
Free Throw % 70.4 / 69.2 89.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 33.0 / 33.2 30.0 / 25.0
Steals 8.5 / 9.2 1.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 11.1 / 13.4 11.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
42%MONEY58%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCD Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +0.8
CSUF
18-16-0 (52.9%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-: +3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCD
17-14-1 (54.8%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +0.8
CSUF Advantage
19-11-2 (63.3%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-: +3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
UCD
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: +1.6
CSUF
13-19-0
O: 40.6% / U: 59.4% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CSUF
UCD
CSUF
UCD
ML
68% 23-11
58% 19-14
76% 26-8
64% 21-12
ATS
68% 23-11
61% 20-13
76% 26-8
64% 21-12
TTL
59% 20-14
61% 20-13
100% 34-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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