CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD
ROADRUNNERSCSUB
8-18 | Road
65
UC RIVERSIDE
HIGHLANDERSUCR
8-19 | Home
93
AI Model Win Probability
ROADRUNNERS
100%
HIGHLANDERS
0%
ROADRUNNERS
--
HIGHLANDERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
174.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-26.0
UC RIVERSIDE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +26.0 points (UC Riverside)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UCR -26.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCR)
CSUB By 1-7 points
0.4%
CSUB By 8-14 points
0.0%
UCR By 1-7 points
2.7%
UCR By 8-14 points
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Cal State Bakersfield
74
CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD
UC Riverside
100
UC RIVERSIDE
Simulated Score
Cal State Bakersfield
65
CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD
UC Riverside
68
UC RIVERSIDE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Highlanders
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Highlanders
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Highlanders (-6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -26.0
D
Sim
Highlanders (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o150.5
Win
Proj Total: 174.0
D
Sim
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 19, 2026
CSUB @ UCR
65 - 93
Jan 8, 2026
UCR @ CSUB
66 - 67
Feb 8, 2025
CSUB @ UCR
64 - 69
Jan 25, 2025
UCR @ CSUB
83 - 79
Mar 13, 2024
CSUB @ UCR
78 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+24.3% more
UC Riverside: 12.7
vs
Cal State Bakersfield: 10.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+8.8%
UC Riverside: 30.9%
vs
Cal State Bakersfield: 22.2%
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.5%
UC Riverside: 76.3%
vs
Cal State Bakersfield: 70.8%
Steals (L5)
+35.5% more
Cal State Bakersfield: 8.0
vs
UC Riverside: 5.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CSUB Score
74.0
65
UCR Score
100.0
93
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.9 / 22.2
60.0 / 22.0
Assists
12.7 / 10.2
18.0 / 12.0
Blocks
4.8 / 5.6
6.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
43.2 / 42.7
47.0 / 32.0
Free Throw %
76.3 / 70.8
86.0 / 85.0
Rebounding
34.2 / 34.6
46.0 / 36.0
Steals
5.2 / 8.0
10.0 / 2.0
Turnovers
13.2 / 14.1
12.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CSUB
8-24-0
(25.0%)
Margin: -9.1
ATS +/-: -3.6
UCR
Advantage
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -4.9
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CSUB
11-18-1
(37.9%)
Margin: -9.1
ATS +/-: -3.6
UCR
Advantage
14-14-2
(50.0%)
Margin: -4.9
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
CSUB
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3%
Total +/-: +5.1
UCR
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCR
CSUB
UCR
CSUB
ML
66%
21-11
55%
17-14
75%
24-8
71%
22-9
ATS
59%
19-13
61%
19-12
75%
24-8
71%
22-9
TTL
66%
21-11
58%
18-13
100%
32-0
100%
31-0
