Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Screaming Eagles @ Leathernecks USI @ WIU

SOUTHERN INDIANA

SCREAMING EAGLESUSI

5-21  |  Road

77
FINAL
Thu, Feb 19 • 8:30 PM ET
Western Hall
View Odds Details →

WESTERN ILLINOIS

LEATHERNECKSWIU

5-22  |  Home

70
AI Model Win Probability
SCREAMING EAGLES
100%
📊
LEATHERNECKS
0%
SCREAMING EAGLES --
LEATHERNECKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
159.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
WESTERN ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Western Illinois)
Screaming EaglesUSI (-3.5) 0 LeathernecksWIU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Screaming Eagles Cover

13.6%

Leathernecks Cover

86.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WIU -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WIU)

USI By 1-7 points

9.3%

USI By 8-14 points

2.7%

WIU By 1-7 points

21.6%

WIU By 8-14 points

27.4%

AI Model Projected Score
74
SOUTHERN INDIANA
85
WESTERN ILLINOIS
Simulated Score
65
SOUTHERN INDIANA
70
WESTERN ILLINOIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Leathernecks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Leathernecks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Leathernecks (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim Leathernecks (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o140.5 Win
Proj Total: 159.0
D
Sim u140.5 Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 19, 2026 USI @ WIU 77 - 70
Jan 23, 2026 WIU @ USI 64 - 96
Feb 13, 2025 USI @ WIU 62 - 87
Jan 18, 2025 WIU @ USI 66 - 78
Feb 24, 2024 USI @ WIU 76 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +39.5% more
Southern Indiana: 6.8 vs Western Illinois: 4.1
Free Throw % (L5) +2.6%
Southern Indiana: 65.4% vs Western Illinois: 62.8%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.6%
Southern Indiana: 32.9% vs Western Illinois: 30.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USI Score 74.0 77
WIU Score 85.0 70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.3 / 32.9 53.0 / 19.0
Assists 8.3 / 8.1 12.0 / 13.0
Blocks 2.3 / 2.2 3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 39.3 / 39.3 50.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 62.8 / 65.4 58.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 30.9 / 32.3 22.0 / 39.0
Steals 4.1 / 6.8 3.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 10.8 / 11.0 13.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
87%MONEY13%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
89%MONEY11%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USI Advantage
7-23-0 (23.3%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -1.3
WIU
5-26-0 (16.1%)
Margin: -11.9 ATS +/-: -5.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USI Advantage
11-16-1 (40.7%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -1.3
WIU
11-17-0 (39.3%)
Margin: -11.9 ATS +/-: -5.3
⚖️ Over/Under
USI
11-17-0
O: 39.3% / U: 60.7% Total +/-: -3.3
WIU
13-15-0
O: 46.4% / U: 53.6% Total +/-: -0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WIU
USI
WIU
USI
ML
45% 14-17
67% 20-10
61% 19-12
61% 17-11
ATS
52% 16-15
70% 21-9
61% 19-12
61% 17-11
TTL
45% 14-17
73% 22-8
100% 31-0
100% 28-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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