Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Thunderbirds @ Texans SUU @ TAR

SOUTHERN UTAH

THUNDERBIRDSSUU

9-17  |  Road

74
FINAL
Thu, Feb 19 • 8:00 PM ET
Wisdom Gym
View Odds Details →

TARLETON STATE

TEXANSTAR

13-13  |  Home

78
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDERBIRDS
0%
📊
TEXANS
100%
THUNDERBIRDS --
TEXANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
155.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
SOUTHERN UTAH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Southern Utah)
ThunderbirdsSUU (-3.5) 0 TexansTAR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunderbirds Cover

93.3%

Texans Cover

6.7%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SUU -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SUU)

SUU By 1-7 points

15.3%

SUU By 8-14 points

25.3%

TAR By 1-7 points

4.8%

TAR By 8-14 points

1.1%

AI Model Projected Score
85
SOUTHERN UTAH
70
TARLETON STATE
Simulated Score
68
SOUTHERN UTAH
72
TARLETON STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Thunderbirds Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Texans Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Thunderbirds (-4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim Texans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o145.5 Win
Proj Total: 155.0
D
Sim u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 19, 2026 SUU @ TAR 74 - 78
Feb 7, 2026 TAR @ SUU 62 - 59
Jan 15, 2026 TAR @ SUU 105 - 106
Feb 1, 2025 SUU @ TAR 58 - 75
Jan 9, 2025 TAR @ SUU 74 - 66
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +45.3% more
Southern Utah: 14.0 vs Tarleton State: 7.7
Rebounding (L5) +17.3% more
Southern Utah: 35.0 vs Tarleton State: 28.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +10.9%
Southern Utah: 36.7% vs Tarleton State: 25.8%
Field Goal % (L5) +4.5%
Southern Utah: 48.1% vs Tarleton State: 43.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SUU Score 85.0 74
TAR Score 70.0 78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 25.8 / 36.7 17.0 / 52.0
Assists 7.7 / 14.0 7.0 / 12.0
Blocks 5.4 / 4.9 5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 43.6 / 48.1 54.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 70.4 / 71.5 65.0 / 78.0
Rebounding 28.9 / 35.0 33.0 / 37.0
Steals 11.5 / 3.8 10.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 17.6 / 14.7 10.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
21%MONEY79%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
45%MONEY55%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SUU
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -3.2 ATS +/-: 0.0
TAR Advantage
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SUU
14-14-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -3.2 ATS +/-: 0.0
TAR
14-14-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
⚖️ Over/Under
SUU
17-12-0
O: 58.6% / U: 41.4% Total +/-: +3.5
TAR
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4% Total +/-: +4.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TAR
SUU
TAR
SUU
ML
59% 19-13
61% 19-12
66% 21-11
68% 21-10
ATS
69% 22-10
71% 22-9
66% 21-11
69% 22-10
TTL
50% 16-16
52% 16-15
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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