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GEORGIA SOUTHERN

EAGLESGASO

15-12  |  Road

64
FINAL
Thu, Feb 19 • 8:00 PM ET
GSU Convocation Center
View Odds Details →

GEORGIA STATE

PANTHERSGAST

9-18  |  Home

66
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
0%
📊
PANTHERS
100%
EAGLES --
PANTHERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
147.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Georgia Southern)
EaglesGASO (-3.5) 0 PanthersGAST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Eagles Cover

69.1%

Panthers Cover

30.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GASO -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GASO)

GASO By 1-7 points

27.2%

GASO By 8-14 points

23.0%

GAST By 1-7 points

18.6%

GAST By 8-14 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
76
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
71
GEORGIA STATE
Simulated Score
70
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
75
GEORGIA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Eagles Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Panthers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Eagles (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Panthers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u154.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Sim u154.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 19, 2026 GASO @ GAST 64 - 66
Dec 18, 2025 GAST @ GASO 67 - 90
Mar 6, 2025 GASO @ GAST 71 - 80
Feb 28, 2025 GAST @ GASO 75 - 76
Jan 8, 2025 GASO @ GAST 78 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +37.8% more
Georgia Southern: 4.9 vs Georgia State: 3.1
Turnovers (L5) +23.9% more
Georgia Southern: 12.0 vs Georgia State: 9.1
Steals (L5) +11.1% more
Georgia Southern: 6.9 vs Georgia State: 6.1
Field Goal % (L5) +9.0%
Georgia Southern: 44.6% vs Georgia State: 35.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GASO Score 76.0 64
GAST Score 71.0 66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.1 / 36.4 27.0 / 28.0
Assists 12.2 / 11.8 8.0 / 11.0
Blocks 3.1 / 4.9 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 35.6 / 44.6 33.0 / 34.0
Free Throw % 75.9 / 75.5 95.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 34.1 / 34.3 45.0 / 39.0
Steals 6.1 / 6.9 6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 9.1 / 12.0 9.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
55%MONEY45%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GASO Advantage
21-16-0 (56.8%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-: -0.1
GAST
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GASO Advantage
17-18-0 (48.6%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-: -0.1
GAST
13-17-0 (43.3%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
GASO
18-17-0
O: 51.4% / U: 48.6% Total +/-: +2.6
GAST
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: -2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GAST
GASO
GAST
GASO
ML
56% 18-14
56% 20-16
71% 22-9
58% 19-14
ATS
59% 19-13
64% 23-13
71% 22-9
58% 19-14
TTL
59% 19-13
61% 22-14
100% 31-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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