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TEXAS STATE

BOBCATSTXST

17-11  |  Road

90
FINAL
Thu, Feb 19 • 8:00 PM ET
Mitchell Center
View Odds Details →

SOUTH ALABAMA

JAGUARSUSA

19-8  |  Home

82
AI Model Win Probability
BOBCATS
100%
📊
JAGUARS
0%
BOBCATS --
JAGUARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
161.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
SOUTH ALABAMA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (South Alabama)
BobcatsTXST (-3.5) 0 JaguarsUSA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bobcats Cover

46.0%

Jaguars Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around USA -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USA)

TXST By 1-7 points

24.3%

TXST By 8-14 points

13.7%

USA By 1-7 points

26.2%

USA By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
80
TEXAS STATE
81
SOUTH ALABAMA
Simulated Score
68
TEXAS STATE
72
SOUTH ALABAMA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Jaguars Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Jaguars Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Jaguars (+4) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Jaguars (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o137.5 Win
Proj Total: 161.0
D
Sim u137.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 19, 2026 TXST @ USA 90 - 82
Dec 20, 2025 USA @ TXST 65 - 67
Feb 22, 2025 USA @ TXST 92 - 93
Feb 15, 2025 TXST @ USA 65 - 70
Feb 15, 2024 TXST @ USA 55 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +12.9% more
South Alabama: 8.7 vs Texas State: 7.7
Rebounding (L5) +8.0% more
South Alabama: 34.7 vs Texas State: 32.1
Blocks (L5) +65.3% more
Texas State: 4.2 vs South Alabama: 1.5
Turnovers (L5) +21.5% more
Texas State: 10.2 vs South Alabama: 8.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TXST Score 80.0 90
USA Score 81.0 82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.3 / 35.7 43.0 / 42.0
Assists 13.0 / 16.2 16.0 / 19.0
Blocks 1.5 / 4.2 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 48.1 / 55.7 55.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 66.8 / 80.3 68.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 34.7 / 32.1 26.0 / 37.0
Steals 8.7 / 7.7 9.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 8.0 / 10.2 10.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
20%MONEY80%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TXST
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
USA Advantage
21-12-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TXST
14-15-1 (48.3%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
USA Advantage
17-14-0 (54.8%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
TXST
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +2.0
USA
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USA
TXST
USA
TXST
ML
47% 15-17
42% 13-18
57% 17-13
83% 25-5
ATS
53% 17-15
48% 15-16
57% 17-13
84% 26-5
TTL
66% 21-11
65% 20-11
100% 30-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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